TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13097974
Played Sep 9Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191012119711
Jan Pleskot
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Pleskot to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Jan Pleskot below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 99 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Jan Pleskot at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 17–27 Jan Pleskot Martin Stefek has won 17 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:32What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pleskot
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-27 in 44
Pleskot
Correct
gap of 10 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1340 vs Pleskot 1291
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 80% vs Pleskot 60%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 50% vs Pleskot 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek -1 · Pleskot +3
Pleskot
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.83 / Pleskot 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pleskot)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13097974
Stefek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Pleskot1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStefek4wins
AwayPleskot6wins
8 of 10 to a deciderPleskot leads 6–4, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek40%2 of 5
AwayPleskot60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek5Pleskot5n = 10split evenly
S2Stefek6Pleskot4n = 10Stefek took 6 of 10
S3Stefek2Pleskot8n = 10Pleskot took 8 of 10
S4Stefek4Pleskot5n = 9Pleskot took 5 of 9
S5Stefek4Pleskot4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStefekPleskotS − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.146.3−3.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekPleskotBasisWin rate · lifetime570 / 1197 vs 290 / 62347.6%46.6%570 / 1197 vs 290 / 623Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekStefek 1.83/Pleskot 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pleskot won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 06:30M. Stefek—811101172J. Pleskot—119129113
WAug 2 · 06:00M. Stefek—127818113J. Pleskot—1011111692
LJul 31 · 01:00M. Stefek—11145882J. Pleskot—7121111113
LJul 30 · 09:30M. Stefek—13118992J. Pleskot—1121111113
LJul 30 · 06:30M. Stefek—11511752J. Pleskot—811611113
WJul 22 · 15:00M. Stefek—1081111113J. Pleskot—12117672
LJul 18 · 03:30M. Stefek—5740J. Pleskot—1111113
WJul 18 · 02:30M. Stefek—111138113J. Pleskot—88111192
LMay 16 · 06:00M. Stefek—811561J. Pleskot—11711113
WMay 5 · 01:00M. Stefek—911711143J. Pleskot—113119122
M. Stefek10
LSep 8 · 03:30M. Stefek2.00471191V. Dolezal1.7311117113WSep 8 · 02:00V. Dolezal1.614913101M. Stefek2.20111111123WSep 8 · 24:30M. Stefek2.20312111123T. Regner1.611110115102WSep 7 · 23:00M. Stefek1.91111166113R. Bartunek1.8096111162WSep 7 · 22:00J. Framberk2.00105100M. Stefek1.731211123LSep 7 · 09:00K. Darin1.50111214113M. Stefek2.502101671LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100
J. Pleskot10
WSep 2 · 17:30J. Pleskot1.84311911123M. Barta1.76119116102WSep 2 · 16:30J. Pleskot1.5011117113M. Syroha2.50451181WSep 2 · 15:00J. Pleskot1.7314118113P. Franc2.001261171LSep 2 · 14:00M. Barta1.91611117113J. Pleskot1.8011851182LAug 31 · 16:59J. Pleskot1.4451281172M. Syroha2.631110116113LAug 31 · 16:00J. Pleskot1.736101171M. Barta2.0011126113LAug 31 · 15:30L. Sulava1.6581113113J. Pleskot1.981181161WAug 31 · 14:00J. Pleskot1.501111113M. Syroha2.509590LAug 30 · 03:28V. Kosar1.53491111113J. Pleskot2.3811119762LAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110
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