TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036938
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
121012101311––––
Jan Pleskot
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:41 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeJan Pleskot to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Jan Pleskot below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 68 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Jan Pleskot at 62.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 1–2 Jan Pleskot Pavel Berdych has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Pleskot
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1305 vs Pleskot 1291
Berdych
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 20% vs Pleskot 40%
Pleskot
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 30% vs Pleskot 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -3 · Pleskot +2
Berdych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Pleskot)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pleskot form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 2.50 / Pleskot 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Pleskot)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036938
Berdych2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Pleskot1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 88 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it92% 35 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it72% 57 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeBerdych1wins
AwayPleskot2wins
Pleskot leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych1Pleskot2n = 3Pleskot took 2 of 3
S2Berdych0Pleskot3n = 3Pleskot took 3 of 3
S3Berdych1Pleskot2n = 3Pleskot took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricBerdychPleskotB − PBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match26.733.7−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychPleskotBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 453 vs 303 / 64349.5%47.1%224 / 453 vs 303 / 643Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PleskotBerdych 2.50/Pleskot 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Pleskot · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Berdych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WDec 27 · 09:30P. Berdych—11611113J. Pleskot—811881
LDec 23 · 07:00P. Berdych—5860J. Pleskot—1111113
LAug 3 · 01:00P. Berdych—7780J. Pleskot—1111113
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
J. Pleskot10
WSep 2 · 17:30J. Pleskot1.84311911123M. Barta1.76119116102WSep 2 · 16:30J. Pleskot1.5011117113M. Syroha2.50451181WSep 2 · 15:00J. Pleskot1.7314118113P. Franc2.001261171LSep 2 · 14:00M. Barta1.91611117113J. Pleskot1.8011851182LAug 31 · 16:59J. Pleskot1.4451281172M. Syroha2.631110116113LAug 31 · 16:00J. Pleskot1.736101171M. Barta2.0011126113LAug 31 · 15:30L. Sulava1.6581113113J. Pleskot1.981181161WAug 31 · 14:00J. Pleskot1.501111113M. Syroha2.509590LAug 30 · 03:28V. Kosar1.53491111113J. Pleskot2.3811119762WAug 30 · 24:30J. Pleskot1.7551111113L. Sulava1.90119961
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