TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036504
Played Aug 30Finished
Daniel Priesol
Home
1.29
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
81181113111311114
Pavel Berdych
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:42 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeDaniel Priesol to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Priesol above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 101 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Daniel Priesol at 62.5%
101 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Priesol 1–1 Pavel Berdych Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:42What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Priesol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Priesol 1386 vs Berdych 1330
Priesol
Correct
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Priesol 40% vs Berdych 20%
Priesol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Priesol 50% vs Berdych 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Priesol -1 · Berdych -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Priesol) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priesol form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPriesol 1.28 / Berdych 3.50
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Priesol)-0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036504
Priesol1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 64 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it74% 46 of 62
Berdych3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePriesol1wins
AwayBerdych1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPriesolBerdychP − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match44.540.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPriesolBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime237 / 460 vs 225 / 45251.5%49.8%237 / 460 vs 225 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriesolPriesol 1.28/Berdych 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.1%
Priesol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Priesol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WDec 21 · 17:00D. Priesol—111112113P. Berdych—1361071
LDec 20 · 21:00D. Priesol—411111172P. Berdych—111336113
D. Priesol10
WSep 6 · 09:30D. Tyn1.731211471D. Priesol2.00101311113WSep 6 · 08:00D. Priesol1.7311711113A. Schneeberger2.00411581WSep 6 · 07:30M. Levicky2.5071490D. Priesol1.501116113LSep 6 · 06:00D. Priesol1.801191161D. Tyn1.9113112113LAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100WAug 30 · 12:00J. Briska2.001061161D. Priesol1.7312119113LAug 30 · 11:00L. Havel1.9111117113D. Priesol1.80591171LAug 30 · 10:30D. Priesol1.5361020M. Tacinec2.381112113LAug 30 · 02:59D. Priesol1.73781161L. Sulava2.0011119113WAug 30 · 02:30D. Priesol1.611111127113V. Kosar2.20137101142
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
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