TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13041004
Played Aug 30Finished
Ladislav Havel 1956
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115119711117––
Daniel Priesol
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Havel 1956 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Havel 1956 above · Daniel Priesol below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 72 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Ladislav Havel 1956 at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Havel 1956 3–0 Daniel Priesol Daniel Priesol has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Priesol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Havel
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havel 1331 vs Priesol 1306
Havel
Correct
both rated, 25 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havel 40% vs Priesol 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havel 60% vs Priesol 40%
Havel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Havel -3 · Priesol -2
Havel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Priesol) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Priesol form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavel 1.91 / Priesol 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Priesol)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13041004
Havel1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 123
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Priesol1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 68 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it92% 33 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHavel3wins
AwayPriesol0wins
Havel leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHavel100%3 of 3
AwayPriesoln = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havel3Priesol0n = 3Havel took 3 of 3
S2Havel3Priesol0n = 3Havel took 3 of 3
S3Havel1Priesol2n = 3Priesol took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHavelPriesolH − PBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set30+3of 3Avg pointsper match40.334.0+6.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavelPriesolBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 582 vs 240 / 46847.9%51.3%279 / 582 vs 240 / 468Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriesolHavel 1.91/Priesol 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Priesol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Havel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel—1111123D. Priesol—69100
WAug 30 · 11:00L. Havel—11117113D. Priesol—591171
WAug 29 · 11:30L. Havel—11177123D. Priesol—91511101
L. Havel10
LAug 31 · 09:28L. Havel1.679121071A. Svoboda2.10111012113WAug 31 · 08:30L. Havel2.10111211113Z. Zikmunda1.67714841WAug 31 · 07:00L. Havel1.801111113M. Ulrych1.918980WAug 31 · 06:00A. Svoboda1.737990L. Havel2.001111113WAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100LAug 30 · 12:30L. Havel2.757131161M. Tacinec1.4011159113LAug 30 · 10:00J. Briska1.831111133L. Havel1.8395110LAug 29 · 13:30L. Sulava1.2211117133L. Havel4.007511111LAug 29 · 12:30L. Sulava1.441111113L. Havel2.636940WAug 29 · 11:30L. Havel2.1011177123D. Priesol1.6791511101
D. Priesol10
WSep 6 · 09:30D. Tyn1.731211471D. Priesol2.00101311113WSep 6 · 08:00D. Priesol1.7311711113A. Schneeberger2.00411581WSep 6 · 07:30M. Levicky2.5071490D. Priesol1.501116113LSep 6 · 06:00D. Priesol1.801191161D. Tyn1.9113112113LAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100WAug 30 · 12:00J. Briska2.001061161D. Priesol1.7312119113LAug 30 · 10:30D. Priesol1.5361020M. Tacinec2.381112113LAug 30 · 02:59D. Priesol1.73781161L. Sulava2.0011119113WAug 30 · 02:30D. Priesol1.611111127113V. Kosar2.20137101142LAug 29 · 11:30L. Havel2.1011177123D. Priesol1.6791511101
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