TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046827
Played Aug 31Finished
Adam Svoboda
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911911––––
Ladislav Havel 1956
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeLadislav Havel 1956 to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Svoboda above · Ladislav Havel 1956 below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 58 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ladislav Havel 1956 at 64.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Adam Svoboda 2–2 Ladislav Havel 1956 Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1379 vs Havel 1376
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Havel 40%
Havel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 30% vs Havel 60%
Havel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -3 · Havel +1
Svoboda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svoboda) · live re-read · sealed at 35% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.73 / Havel 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havel)-0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046827
Svoboda1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 43 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Havel2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 51 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSvoboda2wins
AwayHavel2wins
1 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda2Havel2n = 4split evenly
S2Svoboda1Havel3n = 4Havel took 3 of 4
S3Svoboda3Havel1n = 4Svoboda took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSvobodaHavelS − HBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match37.836.0+1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaHavelBasisWin rate · lifetime122 / 252 vs 279 / 58148.4%48%122 / 252 vs 279 / 581Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.73/Havel 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Havel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 31 · 09:28A. Svoboda—111012113L. Havel—9121071
LAug 31 · 06:00A. Svoboda—7990L. Havel—1111113
LNov 2 · 03:00A. Svoboda—108111182L. Havel—121188113
WOct 9 · 01:00A. Svoboda—1111123L. Havel—67100
A. Svoboda10
WSep 7 · 03:28A. Svoboda1.531112113R. Hasmanda2.3821090WSep 7 · 02:30A. Svoboda1.731312113R. Hasmanda2.00111030WSep 7 · 01:30M. Novak2.00137111192A. Svoboda1.73151196113WSep 7 · 24:00A. Svoboda2.001111123P. Bruzek1.7368100WSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113WSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:00A. Svoboda2.38111112392F. Briza1.53661411113WSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:00A. Svoboda1.8391111662J. Novotny1.83117611113WSep 5 · 02:58A. Svoboda1.61711511113V. Dolezal2.2011611862
L. Havel10
LAug 31 · 09:28L. Havel1.679121071A. Svoboda2.10111012113WAug 31 · 08:30L. Havel2.10111211113Z. Zikmunda1.67714841WAug 31 · 07:00L. Havel1.801111113M. Ulrych1.918980WAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100LAug 30 · 12:30L. Havel2.757131161M. Tacinec1.4011159113WAug 30 · 11:00L. Havel1.9111117113D. Priesol1.80591171LAug 30 · 10:00J. Briska1.831111133L. Havel1.8395110LAug 29 · 13:30L. Sulava1.2211117133L. Havel4.007511111LAug 29 · 12:30L. Sulava1.441111113L. Havel2.636940WAug 29 · 11:30L. Havel2.1011177123D. Priesol1.6791511101
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