TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13046825
Played Aug 31Finished
Ladislav Havel 1956
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Martin Ulrych
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeLadislav Havel 1956 to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Havel 1956 above · Martin Ulrych below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Ladislav Havel 1956 at 55.3%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Havel 1956 3–0 Martin Ulrych Martin Ulrych has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Havel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Havel
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Havel 1376 vs Ulrych 1387
Ulrych
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Havel 60% vs Ulrych 40%
Havel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Havel 60% vs Ulrych 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Havel +2 · Ulrych -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Havel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ulrych form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHavel 1.80 / Ulrych 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Havel)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13046825
Havel1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 73 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it89% 49 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 58 of 76
Ulrych1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 17 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeHavel3wins
AwayUlrych0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderHavel leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Havel2Ulrych1n = 3Havel took 2 of 3
S2Havel2Ulrych1n = 3Havel took 2 of 3
S3Havel2Ulrych1n = 3Havel took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricHavelUlrychH − UBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match40.734.0+6.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHavelUlrychBasisWin rate · lifetime279 / 581 vs 88 / 14848%59.5%279 / 581 vs 88 / 148Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.938.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HavelHavel 1.80/Ulrych 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Havel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Havel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 31 · 07:00L. Havel—1111113M. Ulrych—8980
WMar 31 · 03:00L. Havel—11115113M. Ulrych—491191
WMar 30 · 23:00L. Havel—981111123M. Ulrych—111184102
L. Havel10
LAug 31 · 09:28L. Havel1.679121071A. Svoboda2.10111012113WAug 31 · 08:30L. Havel2.10111211113Z. Zikmunda1.67714841WAug 31 · 06:00A. Svoboda1.737990L. Havel2.001111113WAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100LAug 30 · 12:30L. Havel2.757131161M. Tacinec1.4011159113WAug 30 · 11:00L. Havel1.9111117113D. Priesol1.80591171LAug 30 · 10:00J. Briska1.831111133L. Havel1.8395110LAug 29 · 13:30L. Sulava1.2211117133L. Havel4.007511111LAug 29 · 12:30L. Sulava1.441111113L. Havel2.636940WAug 29 · 11:30L. Havel2.1011177123D. Priesol1.6791511101
M. Ulrych10
WSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580WAug 31 · 13:30M. Ulrych2.63911911113Z. Zikmunda1.4411811772WAug 31 · 12:00M. Ulrych2.201111113A. Svoboda1.617380LAug 31 · 11:30Z. Zikmunda1.5711611113M. Ulrych2.25611691WAug 31 · 10:00M. Ulrych1.671111143P. Kulhanek2.1068120WAug 31 · 09:00Z. Zikmunda1.5010111071M. Ulrych2.5012712113
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