TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13078066
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Ulrych
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711114116115––
Vaclav Kosar
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:28 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Ulrych to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Ulrych above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 66 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Martin Ulrych at 55.8%
66 points played in total.
H2H Martin Ulrych 3–2 Vaclav Kosar Vaclav Kosar has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ulrych
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ulrych 1451 vs Kosar 1338
Ulrych
Correct
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ulrych 100% vs Kosar 40%
Ulrych
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ulrych 70% vs Kosar 50%
Ulrych
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ulrych +5 · Kosar -2
Ulrych
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ulrych) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ulrych form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUlrych 1.61 / Kosar 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Ulrych)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13078066
Ulrych1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 42 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Kosar2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 56 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back30% 21 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeUlrych3wins
AwayKosar2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderUlrych leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUlrychn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayKosar33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ulrych2Kosar3n = 5Kosar took 3 of 5
S2Ulrych3Kosar2n = 5Ulrych took 3 of 5
S3Ulrych3Kosar2n = 5Ulrych took 3 of 5
S4Ulrych1Kosar4n = 5Kosar took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricUlrychKosarU − KBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match40.841.8−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUlrychKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 152 vs 214 / 41960.5%51.1%92 / 152 vs 214 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
UlrychUlrych 1.61/Kosar 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Ulrych · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ulrych won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych—71111113V. Kosar—114651
WJul 7 · 22:30M. Ulrych—116115113V. Kosar—81171192
LJun 19 · 20:00M. Ulrych—61111121V. Kosar—11813143
LMay 17 · 01:00M. Ulrych—117691V. Kosar—91111113
WMar 20 · 24:30M. Ulrych—411128123V. Kosar—1171011102
M. Ulrych10
WSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580WAug 31 · 13:30M. Ulrych2.63911911113Z. Zikmunda1.4411811772WAug 31 · 12:00M. Ulrych2.201111113A. Svoboda1.617380LAug 31 · 11:30Z. Zikmunda1.5711611113M. Ulrych2.25611691WAug 31 · 10:00M. Ulrych1.671111143P. Kulhanek2.1068120WAug 31 · 09:00Z. Zikmunda1.5010111071M. Ulrych2.5012712113LAug 31 · 08:00A. Svoboda1.831111113M. Ulrych1.838670
V. Kosar10
WSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WAug 30 · 03:28V. Kosar1.53491111113J. Pleskot2.3811119762LAug 30 · 02:30D. Priesol1.611111127113V. Kosar2.20137101142WAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113WAug 29 · 23:30V. Kosar2.251411113L. Sulava1.5712960WAug 29 · 22:00V. Kosar1.53129115113J. Pleskot2.38101171192WAug 28 · 17:00V. Kosar2.001311123P. Kulhanek1.73119100
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