TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13036346
Played Aug 30Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116117511811711
Vaclav Kosar
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVaclav Kosar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Vaclav Kosar below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 88 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Vaclav Kosar at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 11–5 Vaclav Kosar Vaclav Kosar has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:10What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Berdych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Berdych
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1321 vs Kosar 1393
Kosar
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 20% vs Kosar 60%
Kosar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 40% vs Kosar 70%
Kosar
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -2 · Kosar +3
Kosar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Berdych) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kosar form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 1.50 / Kosar 2.50
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Berdych)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13036346
Berdych1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 57 of 91
Up 2–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it84% 42 of 50
Kosar2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 55 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back29% 20 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych8wins
AwayKosar2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBerdych leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych83.3%5 of 6
AwayKosar25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych6Kosar4n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S2Berdych7Kosar3n = 10Berdych took 7 of 10
S3Berdych6Kosar4n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S4Berdych5Kosar2n = 7Berdych took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychKosarB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.431.5+5.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychKosarBasisWin rate · lifetime225 / 453 vs 217 / 43149.7%50.4%225 / 453 vs 217 / 431Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerdychBerdych 1.50/Kosar 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66%
Berdych · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kosar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 9 · 15:00P. Berdych—711511113V. Kosar—11911672
WApr 19 · 24:00P. Berdych—11711113V. Kosar—711681
WApr 4 · 01:00P. Berdych—11118113V. Kosar—961181
LFeb 25 · 17:59P. Berdych—117881V. Kosar—81111113
WFeb 25 · 15:00P. Berdych—611711113V. Kosar—11311452
WSep 14 · 12:00P. Berdych—1111123V. Kosar—48100
WAug 30 · 22:00P. Berdych—1111113V. Kosar—7670
WAug 3 · 02:00P. Berdych—1112113V. Kosar—61030
WAug 1 · 12:00P. Berdych—41111113V. Kosar—117821
LJul 19 · 22:00P. Berdych—461191V. Kosar—11118113
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
V. Kosar10
WSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113WSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:30M. Ulrych1.6171111113V. Kosar2.20114651LSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WAug 30 · 03:28V. Kosar1.53491111113J. Pleskot2.3811119762LAug 30 · 02:30D. Priesol1.611111127113V. Kosar2.20137101142WAug 29 · 23:30V. Kosar2.251411113L. Sulava1.5712960WAug 29 · 22:00V. Kosar1.53129115113J. Pleskot2.38101171192WAug 28 · 17:00V. Kosar2.001311123P. Kulhanek1.73119100
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