TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13020988
Played Aug 27Finished
Jiri Moravek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115119117––––
Pavel Berdych
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:28 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Moravek above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 54 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 62.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Moravek 3–2 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Moravek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravek 1425 vs Berdych 1347
Moravek
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravek 40% vs Berdych 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 60% vs Berdych 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek +1 · Berdych -3
Berdych
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Moravek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 1.50 / Berdych 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Moravek)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13020988
Moravek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 27 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it82% 18 of 22
Berdych2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog25% won 15 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMoravek3wins
AwayBerdych2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMoravek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayBerdych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravek2Berdych3n = 5Berdych took 3 of 5
S2Moravek3Berdych2n = 5Moravek took 3 of 5
S3Moravek4Berdych1n = 5Moravek took 4 of 5
S4Moravek1Berdych3n = 4Berdych took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricMoravekBerdychM − BBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match39.636.2+3.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 183 vs 226 / 45348.1%49.9%88 / 183 vs 226 / 453Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravekMoravek 1.50/Berdych 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Moravek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 12 · 21:00J. Moravek—91112113P. Berdych—1171071
WOct 12 · 19:00J. Moravek—1111113P. Berdych—5760
LSep 24 · 19:30J. Moravek—9111091P. Berdych—11612113
WSep 7 · 21:00J. Moravek—1191310113P. Berdych—811111272
LSep 7 · 18:00J. Moravek—691131P. Berdych—11116113
J. Moravek10
WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek1.8391111113J. Framberk1.83114891LAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek1.8311117113J. Moravek1.83791141LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113LJul 14 · 20:00J. Moravek2.10116761M. Trinta1.6751111113WJul 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.67111181182J. Moravek2.10413118113
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
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