TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018097
Played Aug 27Finished
Martin Stefek
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117119711114––
Jiri Moravek
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:35 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Stefek above · Jiri Moravek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 71 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 54.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Martin Stefek 1–4 Jiri Moravek Martin Stefek has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:35What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Moravek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Moravek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stefek 1508 vs Moravek 1424
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stefek 100% vs Moravek 40%
Stefek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stefek 80% vs Moravek 50%
Stefek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stefek +5 · Moravek -2
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Moravek) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStefek 1.83 / Moravek 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Moravek)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018097
Stefek1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Moravek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStefek1wins
AwayMoravek4wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMoravek leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStefek33.3%1 of 3
AwayMoravekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stefek3Moravek2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
S2Stefek3Moravek2n = 5Stefek took 3 of 5
S3Stefek1Moravek4n = 5Moravek took 4 of 5
S4Stefek1Moravek4n = 5Moravek took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away360%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStefekMoravekS − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match38.841.4−2.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStefekMoravekBasisWin rate · lifetime565 / 1180 vs 87 / 18147.9%48.1%565 / 1180 vs 87 / 181Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MoravekStefek 1.83/Moravek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Moravek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WMay 22 · 18:00M. Stefek—11119113J. Moravek—821191
LMay 17 · 16:59M. Stefek—711681J. Moravek—11211113
LMay 17 · 14:30M. Stefek—118381J. Moravek—81111113
LMay 12 · 20:59M. Stefek—1112981J. Moravek—131011113
LMay 12 · 20:30M. Stefek—16911952J. Moravek—1411911113
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
J. Moravek10
WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek1.8391111113J. Framberk1.83114891LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113LJul 14 · 20:00J. Moravek2.10116761M. Trinta1.6751111113WJul 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.67111181182J. Moravek2.10413118113
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