TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042236
Played Aug 30Finished
Jiri Moravek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116119––––
Martin Stefek
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Moravek above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 55 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Moravek 4–3 Martin Stefek Martin Stefek has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:27What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stefek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravek 1462 vs Stefek 1482
Stefek
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravek 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 40% vs Stefek 60%
Stefek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek -2 · Stefek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stefek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 2.00 / Stefek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stefek)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042236
Moravek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog31% won 12 of 39
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Stefek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 126 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it92% 69 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it77% 92 of 119
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMoravek4wins
AwayStefek3wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMoravek leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravek66.7%2 of 3
AwayStefek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravek3Stefek4n = 7Stefek took 4 of 7
S2Moravek2Stefek5n = 7Stefek took 5 of 7
S3Moravek6Stefek1n = 7Moravek took 6 of 7
S4Moravek4Stefek3n = 7Moravek took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMoravekStefekM − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match39.440.4−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 189 vs 569 / 118648.7%48%92 / 189 vs 569 / 1186Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekMoravek 2.00/Stefek 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Moravek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 27 · 21:28J. Moravek—12311662M. Stefek—1011611113
LAug 27 · 18:00J. Moravek—791141M. Stefek—11117113
LMay 22 · 18:00J. Moravek—821191M. Stefek—11119113
WMay 17 · 16:59J. Moravek—11211113M. Stefek—711681
WMay 17 · 14:30J. Moravek—81111113M. Stefek—118381
WMay 12 · 20:59J. Moravek—131011113M. Stefek—1112981
WMay 12 · 20:30J. Moravek—1411911113M. Stefek—16911952
J. Moravek10
WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek1.8391111113J. Framberk1.83114891LAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek1.8311117113J. Moravek1.83791141LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113LJul 14 · 20:00J. Moravek2.10116761M. Trinta1.6751111113WJul 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.67111181182J. Moravek2.10413118113
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951WAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek1.8311117113J. Moravek1.83791141
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