TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13021350
Played Aug 27Finished
Jiri Moravek
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911114118119––
Jan Framberk
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Moravek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Moravek above · Jan Framberk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Moravek at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Moravek 3–3 Jan Framberk Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Framberk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Moravek 1425 vs Framberk 1348
Moravek
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Moravek 20% vs Framberk 60%
Framberk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Moravek 50% vs Framberk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Moravek -3 · Framberk +1
Moravek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Framberk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Moravek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMoravek 1.83 / Framberk 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Framberk)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13021350
Moravek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Framberk1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeMoravek3wins
AwayFramberk3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMoravekn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFramberk40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Moravek1Framberk5n = 6Framberk took 5 of 6
S2Moravek5Framberk1n = 6Moravek took 5 of 6
S3Moravek3Framberk3n = 6split evenly
S4Moravek2Framberk3n = 5Framberk took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricMoravekFramberkM − FBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match41.340.5+0.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMoravekFramberkBasisWin rate · lifetime88 / 183 vs 65 / 12248.1%53.3%88 / 183 vs 65 / 122Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FramberkMoravek 1.83/Framberk 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Framberk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Moravek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 27 · 19:00J. Moravek—91111113J. Framberk—114891
LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek—1413851J. Framberk—161111113
WJul 14 · 19:30J. Moravek—413118113J. Framberk—111181182
LJun 16 · 18:00J. Moravek—88110J. Framberk—1111133
LJun 14 · 20:00J. Moravek—111294102J. Framberk—4101111123
WMay 27 · 18:30J. Moravek—131111113J. Framberk—156361
J. Moravek10
WAug 30 · 21:29T. Regner1.4011391192J. Moravek2.75611119113WAug 30 · 20:30J. Didi3.00116671J. Moravek1.3681111113WAug 30 · 19:30J. Moravek2.001111113M. Stefek1.737690LAug 30 · 18:30T. Regner1.441111113J. Moravek2.638790LAug 27 · 21:28M. Stefek1.831011611113J. Moravek1.8312311662WAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 18:00M. Stefek1.8311117113J. Moravek1.83791141LJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113LJul 14 · 20:00J. Moravek2.10116761M. Trinta1.6751111113WJul 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.67111181182J. Moravek2.10413118113
J. Framberk10
WSep 3 · 03:04J. Framberk2.6351111123J. Strnad1.441136101WSep 3 · 02:30J. Framberk1.5311613123J. Strnad2.3881111101LSep 3 · 01:30P. Kulhanek2.0014113113J. Framberk1.731291171WSep 3 · 24:00J. Framberk1.571111113S. Mazanek2.259560LSep 2 · 23:00M. Syroha2.631111133J. Framberk1.4459110LAug 28 · 21:28J. Framberk1.331011651M. Barta3.2512811113WAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552WAug 28 · 19:00J. Framberk2.6341112113D. Priesol1.441171091WJul 14 · 20:58J. Moravek1.801413851J. Framberk1.91161111113LJul 14 · 19:30J. Framberk1.67111181182J. Moravek2.10413118113
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