TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077884
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611112118112––
Pavel Berdych
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:58 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 62 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 54.5%
62 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 10–6 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:58What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Novotny
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1269 vs Berdych 1286
Berdych
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 20% vs Berdych 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 40% vs Berdych 20%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +1 · Berdych -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Novotny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.73 / Berdych 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Novotny)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077884
Novotny1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite48% won 28 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 21 of 33
Berdych2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog25% won 17 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny6wins
AwayBerdych4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny80%4 of 5
AwayBerdych60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S2Novotny7Berdych3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Novotny7Berdych3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S4Novotny3Berdych5n = 8Berdych took 5 of 8
S5Novotny2Berdych2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyBerdychN − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.336.5+4.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime157 / 333 vs 213 / 43747.2%48.7%157 / 333 vs 213 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.73/Berdych 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 15 · 17:30M. Novotny—8111081P. Berdych—11112113
WOct 15 · 15:30M. Novotny—1181111113P. Berdych—81181332
WSep 26 · 14:00M. Novotny—12711113P. Berdych—1011561
WSep 12 · 20:30M. Novotny—71111113P. Berdych—118981
LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny—15119652P. Berdych—1371111113
WAug 23 · 03:03M. Novotny—1113113P. Berdych—41140
WAug 23 · 02:00M. Novotny—1111113P. Berdych—3650
LAug 10 · 03:30M. Novotny—9111031P. Berdych—11612113
LAug 9 · 23:30M. Novotny—711111372P. Berdych—1113911113
WJun 4 · 15:30M. Novotny—711117113P. Berdych—11531182
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451WAug 28 · 16:30P. Kulhanek1.44137891M. Novotny2.63111111113
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
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