TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13030345
Played Aug 28Finished
Daniel Priesol
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116116115––––
Miroslav Novotny
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:12 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeDaniel Priesol to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDaniel Priesol above · Miroslav Novotny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 50 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Daniel Priesol at 62.2%
50 points played in total.
H2H Daniel Priesol 2–0 Miroslav Novotny Miroslav Novotny has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:12What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Priesol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Priesol 1403 vs Novotny 1280
Priesol
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Priesol 100% vs Novotny 80%
Priesol
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Priesol 90% vs Novotny 50%
Priesol
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Priesol +5 · Novotny +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Priesol) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPriesol 1.40 / Novotny 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Priesol)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13030345
Priesol1.40
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 58 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it90% 28 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it73% 41 of 56
Novotny2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog34% won 11 of 32
Down 0–1, comes back6% 1 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePriesol2wins
AwayNovotny0wins
Priesol leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPriesolNovotnyP − NBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.522.5+15.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPriesolNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime236 / 458 vs 157 / 33951.5%46.3%236 / 458 vs 157 / 339Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PriesolPriesol 1.40/Novotny 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Priesol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Priesol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol—1111113M. Novotny—6650
WAug 27 · 16:30D. Priesol—91111113M. Novotny—118451
D. Priesol10
WSep 6 · 09:30D. Tyn1.731211471D. Priesol2.00101311113WSep 6 · 08:00D. Priesol1.7311711113A. Schneeberger2.00411581WSep 6 · 07:30M. Levicky2.5071490D. Priesol1.501116113LSep 6 · 06:00D. Priesol1.801191161D. Tyn1.9113112113LAug 30 · 13:00L. Havel1.801111123D. Priesol1.9169100WAug 30 · 12:00J. Briska2.001061161D. Priesol1.7312119113LAug 30 · 11:00L. Havel1.9111117113D. Priesol1.80591171LAug 30 · 10:30D. Priesol1.5361020M. Tacinec2.381112113LAug 30 · 02:59D. Priesol1.73781161L. Sulava2.0011119113WAug 30 · 02:30D. Priesol1.611111127113V. Kosar2.20137101142
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451WAug 28 · 16:30P. Kulhanek1.44137891M. Novotny2.63111111113
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