TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13076755
Played Sep 6Finished
Miroslav Novotny
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191189111210––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:09 and never touched — 58.4% is still 58.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Novotny to win
58.4%
58.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Novotny above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 81 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Miroslav Novotny at 58.4%
81 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Novotny 13–5 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 5 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:09What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-5 in 18
Novotny
Correct
gap of 8 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1281 vs Strnad 1335
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 50% vs Strnad 70%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny +2 · Strnad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.33 / Strnad 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Novotny)+0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13076755
Novotny1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 28 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it80% 12 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it64% 21 of 33
Strnad3.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny8wins
AwayStrnad2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny100%6 of 6
AwayStrnad50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny6Strnad4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S2Novotny6Strnad4n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Novotny9Strnad1n = 10Novotny took 9 of 10
S4Novotny4Strnad2n = 6Novotny took 4 of 6
S5Novotny2Strnad1n = 3Novotny took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyStrnadN − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.334.9+4.4per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime158 / 334 vs 535 / 109947.3%48.7%158 / 334 vs 535 / 1099Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.33/Strnad 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 3 · 16:30M. Novotny—11713113J. Strnad—8111181
WAug 1 · 24:00M. Novotny—1011146113J. Strnad—129121132
WJul 4 · 23:30M. Novotny—1111113J. Strnad—6670
WJun 7 · 01:30M. Novotny—14118113J. Strnad—1271181
WMay 1 · 22:30M. Novotny—1313113J. Strnad—111180
WMar 21 · 24:30M. Novotny—531111113J. Strnad—11118682
WSep 26 · 20:30M. Novotny—1111113J. Strnad—7280
LAug 23 · 01:00M. Novotny—861191J. Strnad—11119103
WAug 16 · 01:30M. Novotny—1111123J. Strnad—87110
LJul 15 · 02:30M. Novotny—29111292J. Strnad—1111610113
M. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 03:30M. Ulrych1.36111111113M. Novotny3.00613161WSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821WSep 6 · 24:00V. Kosar2.00981191M. Novotny1.7311114113LSep 5 · 22:30M. Ulrych1.831111113M. Novotny1.839580LAug 28 · 21:00D. Priesol1.2531111113M. Novotny3.75117861LAug 28 · 20:30J. Framberk1.805131111113M. Novotny1.91111113552LAug 28 · 19:30M. Novotny1.4412511101M. Barta2.63101113123LAug 28 · 18:30D. Priesol1.401111113M. Novotny2.756650WAug 28 · 17:30M. Novotny2.50111011113J. Framberk1.50412451WAug 28 · 16:30P. Kulhanek1.44137891M. Novotny2.63111111113
J. Strnad10
LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda2.389790J. Strnad1.531111113WSep 4 · 13:30J. Strnad1.8511119133P. Kulhanek1.854111111WSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752
Upcoming Matches
M. Novotny
Nothing scheduled
J. Strnad
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