TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086715
Played Sep 7Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811411811––––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 8–13 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Milan Chalupnicek has won 8 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-13 in 21
Strnad
Correct
gap of 5 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1355 vs Strnad 1314
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Strnad 40%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 50% vs Strnad 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +1 · Strnad -3
Strnad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.20 / Strnad 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Strnad)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13086715
Chalupnicek2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 57 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back30% 23 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back14% 6 of 42
Strnad1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 133 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it93% 71 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it74% 105 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek4wins
AwayStrnad6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek60%3 of 5
AwayStrnad80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupnicek3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Chalupnicek6Strnad4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S4Chalupnicek1Strnad6n = 7Strnad took 6 of 7
S5Chalupnicek3Strnad2n = 5Chalupnicek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekStrnadC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.042.3−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 659 vs 535 / 110149.3%48.6%325 / 659 vs 535 / 1101Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadChalupnicek 2.20/Strnad 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.9%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 12:30M. Chalupnicek—12611752J. Strnad—1011711113
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek—119118113J. Strnad—31191142
LAug 24 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—7950J. Strnad—1111113
LAug 14 · 06:30M. Chalupnicek—581191J. Strnad—11119113
WJul 17 · 13:04M. Chalupnicek—1111123J. Strnad—97100
WJul 17 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—1114146113J. Strnad—812161192
LMay 19 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—118111382J. Strnad—911615113
WApr 13 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek—5111115133J. Strnad—1161313112
LApr 8 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—6590J. Strnad—1111113
LApr 7 · 13:28M. Chalupnicek—371181J. Strnad—11116113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381WSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec2.101012141142M. Chalupnicek1.671210169113WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102
J. Strnad10
LSep 7 · 11:00J. Strnad1.805870P. Kulhanek1.911111113LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752
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J. Strnad
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