TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077325
Played Sep 5Finished
Zbynek Drabek
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
51111814121210––
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 65.9% is still 65.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
65.9%
65.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingZbynek Drabek above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 83 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 65.9%
83 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Drabek 2–5 Milan Chalupnicek Zbynek Drabek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chalupnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Chalupnicek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Drabek 1320 vs Chalupnicek 1355
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Drabek 20% vs Chalupnicek 60%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Drabek 40% vs Chalupnicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Drabek -3 · Chalupnicek +1
Drabek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDrabek 2.20 / Chalupnicek 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077325
Drabek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 17 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back33% 7 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Chalupnicek1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 58 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 34 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeDrabek2wins
AwayChalupnicek5wins
4 of 7 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 5–2, and 4 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDrabek33.3%1 of 3
AwayChalupnicek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Drabek3Chalupnicek4n = 7Chalupnicek took 4 of 7
S2Drabek4Chalupnicek3n = 7Drabek took 4 of 7
S3Drabek2Chalupnicek5n = 7Chalupnicek took 5 of 7
S4Drabek3Chalupnicek3n = 6split evenly
S5Drabek1Chalupnicek3n = 4Chalupnicek took 3 of 4
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricDrabekChalupnicekD − CBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match38.643.9−5.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDrabekChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 92 vs 325 / 65951.1%49.3%47 / 92 vs 325 / 659Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekDrabek 2.20/Chalupnicek 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Drabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek—51114123M. Chalupnicek—11812101
LSep 4 · 13:06Z. Drabek—81140M. Chalupnicek—1113113
WSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek—114611123M. Chalupnicek—511115102
LSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek—11122762M. Chalupnicek—4101111113
LApr 15 · 09:30Z. Drabek—11118642M. Chalupnicek—781111113
LApr 15 · 07:30Z. Drabek—411851M. Chalupnicek—11611113
LApr 2 · 06:30Z. Drabek—9101111142M. Chalupnicek—111279163
Z. Drabek10
WSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113LSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471WSep 5 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.735111011113Z. Zikmunda2.0011612792WSep 5 · 08:00Z. Drabek1.441111113M. Barta2.634870WSep 5 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.0091171482Z. Drabek1.731171112113LSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:00P. Kulhanek1.91411311113Z. Drabek1.8011911282LSep 4 · 11:00J. Strnad2.38117116133Z. Drabek1.53611911112
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113WSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek1.9111122762M. Chalupnicek1.804101111113
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M. Chalupnicek
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