TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071019
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111012115211––
Petr Sudek
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:19 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timePetr Sudek to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Petr Sudek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 69 set 4, 2-11 — our read held Petr Sudek at 62.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 2–6 Petr Sudek Milan Chalupnicek has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sudek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Sudek
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1313 vs Sudek 1294
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Sudek 40%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Sudek 40%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +1 · Sudek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Sudek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sudek form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.63 / Sudek 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Sudek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071019
Chalupnicek2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 56 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back29% 22 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 41
Sudek1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 14 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeChalupnicek2wins
AwaySudek6wins
5 of 8 to a deciderSudek leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySudek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek3Sudek5n = 8Sudek took 5 of 8
S2Chalupnicek1Sudek7n = 8Sudek took 7 of 8
S3Chalupnicek4Sudek4n = 8split evenly
S4Chalupnicek3Sudek3n = 6split evenly
S5Chalupnicek2Sudek3n = 5Sudek took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricChalupnicekSudekC − SBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match39.143.4−4.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekSudekBasisWin rate · lifetime320 / 649 vs 84 / 17749.3%47.5%320 / 649 vs 84 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SudekChalupnicek 2.63/Sudek 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Sudek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sudek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 1 · 09:28M. Chalupnicek—45100P. Sudek—1111123
WSep 1 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek—1151011133P. Sudek—511126112
LApr 23 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—49111182P. Sudek—111189113
LMar 4 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—13811872P. Sudek—1111611113
LNov 19 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—1110951P. Sudek—4121193
LNov 19 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek—8690P. Sudek—1111113
WJan 15 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—411128113P. Sudek—118101172
LJan 15 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek—812111182P. Sudek—111497113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113WSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek1.9111122762M. Chalupnicek1.804101111113
P. Sudek10
LSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192LSep 4 · 06:30P. Sudek1.8011991192Z. Drabek1.91611117113WSep 1 · 09:28P. Sudek1.571111123M. Chalupnicek2.2545100LSep 1 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.251151011133P. Sudek1.57511126112WSep 1 · 07:00J. Svec3.5010111161P. Sudek1.2812913113WSep 1 · 06:30P. Sudek2.0081111143J. Strnad1.731189121LAug 6 · 13:00P. Sudek1.83411971J. Strnad1.8311411113LAug 6 · 12:00P. Sudek2.2079130J. Grohsgott1.611111153WAug 6 · 11:30Z. Drabek1.83915101292P. Sudek1.8311131210113
Upcoming Matches
M. Chalupnicek
P. Sudek
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