TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052427
Played Sep 1Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11551110121161311
Petr Sudek
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 59.1% is still 59.1%
Graded at full timePetr Sudek to win
59.1%
59.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Petr Sudek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 95 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Petr Sudek at 59.1%
95 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 2–5 Petr Sudek Milan Chalupnicek has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sudek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Sudek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1327 vs Sudek 1300
Chalupnicek
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Sudek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 60% vs Sudek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek +1 · Sudek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sudek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 2.25 / Sudek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Sudek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052427
Chalupnicek2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 56 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 40
Sudek1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 12 of 23
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it71% 10 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChalupnicek2wins
AwaySudek5wins
5 of 7 to a deciderSudek leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySudek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek3Sudek4n = 7Sudek took 4 of 7
S2Chalupnicek1Sudek6n = 7Sudek took 6 of 7
S3Chalupnicek4Sudek3n = 7Chalupnicek took 4 of 7
S4Chalupnicek3Sudek3n = 6split evenly
S5Chalupnicek2Sudek3n = 5Sudek took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricChalupnicekSudekC − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match42.044.7−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekSudekBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 654 vs 83 / 17449.5%47.7%324 / 654 vs 83 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SudekChalupnicek 2.25/Sudek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.5%
Sudek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 1 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek—1151011133P. Sudek—511126112
LApr 23 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—49111182P. Sudek—111189113
LMar 4 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—13811872P. Sudek—1111611113
LNov 19 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—1110951P. Sudek—4121193
LNov 19 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek—8690P. Sudek—1111113
WJan 15 · 10:30M. Chalupnicek—411128113P. Sudek—118101172
LJan 15 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek—812111182P. Sudek—111497113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113
P. Sudek10
LSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113WSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113LSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192LSep 4 · 06:30P. Sudek1.8011991192Z. Drabek1.91611117113WSep 1 · 09:28P. Sudek1.571111123M. Chalupnicek2.2545100WSep 1 · 07:00J. Svec3.5010111161P. Sudek1.2812913113WSep 1 · 06:30P. Sudek2.0081111143J. Strnad1.731189121LAug 6 · 13:00P. Sudek1.83411971J. Strnad1.8311411113LAug 6 · 12:00P. Sudek2.2079130J. Grohsgott1.611111153WAug 6 · 11:30Z. Drabek1.83915101292P. Sudek1.8311131210113
Upcoming Matches
M. Chalupnicek
P. Sudek
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