TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071424
Played Sep 4Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012116711117115
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:37 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Strnad 1964 to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 91 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Strnad 1964 at 56.5%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 12–8 Milan Chalupnicek Milan Chalupnicek has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:37What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Strnad
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-8 in 20
Strnad
Correct
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1298 vs Chalupnicek 1338
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 40% vs Chalupnicek 60%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 40% vs Chalupnicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad +1 · Chalupnicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Strnad) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 1.57 / Chalupnicek 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Strnad)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13071424
Strnad1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 129 of 227
Up 2–0, closes it93% 68 of 73
Up 1–0, closes it73% 102 of 139
Chalupnicek2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog42% won 56 of 132
Down 0–1, comes back29% 22 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad5wins
AwayChalupnicek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad80%4 of 5
AwayChalupnicek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad5Chalupnicek5n = 10split evenly
S2Strnad6Chalupnicek4n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S3Strnad5Chalupnicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Strnad5Chalupnicek2n = 7Strnad took 5 of 7
S5Strnad1Chalupnicek3n = 4Chalupnicek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadChalupnicekS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.639.1+1.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 1090 vs 322 / 65348.5%49.3%529 / 1090 vs 322 / 653Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrnadStrnad 1.57/Chalupnicek 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.1%
Strnad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 07:30J. Strnad—31191142M. Chalupnicek—119118113
WAug 24 · 06:00J. Strnad—1111113M. Chalupnicek—7950
WAug 14 · 06:30J. Strnad—11119113M. Chalupnicek—581191
LJul 17 · 13:04J. Strnad—97100M. Chalupnicek—1111123
LJul 17 · 10:00J. Strnad—812161192M. Chalupnicek—1114146113
WMay 19 · 10:30J. Strnad—911615113M. Chalupnicek—118111382
LApr 13 · 11:30J. Strnad—1161313112M. Chalupnicek—5111115133
WApr 8 · 10:00J. Strnad—1111113M. Chalupnicek—6590
WApr 7 · 13:28J. Strnad—11116113M. Chalupnicek—371181
LApr 7 · 10:00J. Strnad—7121131M. Chalupnicek—11146113
J. Strnad10
LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda2.389790J. Strnad1.531111113WSep 4 · 13:30J. Strnad1.8511119133P. Kulhanek1.854111111
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113WSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek1.9111122762M. Chalupnicek1.804101111113
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