TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077452
Played Sep 5Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113113811117––
Miroslav Barta
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:08 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Miroslav Barta below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 65 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 59.3%
65 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 6–1 Miroslav Barta Miroslav Barta has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chalupnicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-1 in 7
Chalupnicek
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1355 vs Barta 1253
Chalupnicek
Correct
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Barta 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Barta 60%
Barta
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek -1 · Barta -3
Barta
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 1.57 / Barta 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077452
Chalupnicek1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 58 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 34 of 43
Barta2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog40% won 69 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back22% 22 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChalupnicek6wins
AwayBarta1wins
2 of 7 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek83.3%5 of 6
AwayBartan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek6Barta1n = 7Chalupnicek took 6 of 7
S2Chalupnicek4Barta3n = 7Chalupnicek took 4 of 7
S3Chalupnicek3Barta4n = 7Barta took 4 of 7
S4Chalupnicek4Barta2n = 6Chalupnicek took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home343%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricChalupnicekBartaC − BBasisWins61+5in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match42.134.7+7.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekBartaBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 659 vs 224 / 48449.3%46.3%325 / 659 vs 224 / 484Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekChalupnicek 1.57/Barta 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek—111128113M. Barta—74111122
WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek—11118113M. Barta—331171
WJul 24 · 14:30M. Chalupnicek—1311113M. Barta—11160
LJul 7 · 15:00M. Chalupnicek—1196121M. Barta—71111143
WJan 3 · 12:30M. Chalupnicek—11115163M. Barta—7911141
WDec 6 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—841111113M. Barta—11114862
WDec 6 · 09:00M. Chalupnicek—111211163M. Barta—7147141
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113WSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek1.9111122762M. Chalupnicek1.804101111113
M. Barta10
WSep 6 · 13:30M. Barta1.75911911113L. Sulava1.9511711952LSep 6 · 12:30M. Barta1.9177111172L. Sulava1.80111165113WSep 6 · 11:00M. Barta2.101111113J. Briska1.674640WSep 6 · 10:00M. Stefek1.446670M. Barta2.631111113WSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113LSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:30M. Barta1.678230Z. Zikmunda2.101111113LSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471LSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:00Z. Drabek1.441111113M. Barta2.634870
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M. Chalupnicek
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