TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071402
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119116––––
Pavel Kulhanek
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePavel Kulhanek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Pavel Kulhanek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Pavel Kulhanek at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 11–8 Pavel Kulhanek Pavel Kulhanek has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:38What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupnicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Chalupnicek
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1313 vs Kulhanek 1340
Kulhanek
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Kulhanek 80%
Kulhanek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Kulhanek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek -1 · Kulhanek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kulhanek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 1.80 / Kulhanek 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071402
Chalupnicek1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 55 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it80% 32 of 40
Kulhanek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 43 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back21% 14 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back13% 6 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek7wins
AwayKulhanek3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupnicek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek83.3%5 of 6
AwayKulhanek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek6Kulhanek4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S2Chalupnicek7Kulhanek3n = 10Chalupnicek took 7 of 10
S3Chalupnicek7Kulhanek3n = 10Chalupnicek took 7 of 10
S4Chalupnicek3Kulhanek4n = 7Kulhanek took 4 of 7
S5Chalupnicek2Kulhanek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekKulhanekC − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.237.2+4.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekKulhanekBasisWin rate · lifetime321 / 652 vs 223 / 41349.2%54%321 / 652 vs 223 / 413Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekChalupnicek 1.80/Kulhanek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 17 · 11:00M. Chalupnicek—4790P. Kulhanek—1111113
WJun 13 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—9111111113P. Kulhanek—11971392
LApr 24 · 13:28M. Chalupnicek—11311772P. Kulhanek—511811113
WApr 24 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—111144113P. Kulhanek—86111152
WApr 8 · 13:00M. Chalupnicek—111111123P. Kulhanek—8130101
WApr 8 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—1111113P. Kulhanek—8750
WApr 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek—1111113P. Kulhanek—7790
WApr 1 · 16:30M. Chalupnicek—121111113P. Kulhanek—1091351
WMar 14 · 13:30M. Chalupnicek—121111123P. Kulhanek—1457101
LMar 10 · 12:30M. Chalupnicek—717111482P. Kulhanek—1115316113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113WSep 4 · 07:30Z. Drabek1.9111122762M. Chalupnicek1.804101111113
P. Kulhanek10
LSep 4 · 13:30J. Strnad1.8511119133P. Kulhanek1.854111111WSep 4 · 12:00P. Kulhanek1.91411311113Z. Drabek1.8011911282WSep 4 · 10:00P. Kulhanek1.80811711113J. Strnad1.9111711562LSep 3 · 03:28P. Kulhanek2.2591112842M. Syroha1.571181011113WSep 3 · 01:30P. Kulhanek2.0014113113J. Framberk1.731291171WSep 3 · 24:30M. Syroha1.57119811102P. Kulhanek2.25411118123WSep 2 · 23:30J. Strnad1.53111357112P. Kulhanek2.389111111133WSep 2 · 22:30P. Kulhanek1.3091111113S. Mazanek3.40116681LAug 31 · 13:00A. Svoboda1.3631111113P. Kulhanek3.00117831LAug 31 · 12:30P. Kulhanek2.636780Z. Zikmunda1.441111113
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