TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13076757
Played Sep 5Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611119911811––
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Jaroslav Strnad 1964 below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 56.0%
76 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 31–21 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 21 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Berdych
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-21 in 52
Berdych
Wrong
gap of 10 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1318 vs Strnad 1283
Berdych
Wrong
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 40% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 30% vs Strnad 50%
Strnad
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych +1 · Strnad -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Berdych) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 1.80 / Strnad 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Berdych)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13076757
Berdych1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 56 of 89
Up 2–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it85% 41 of 48
Strnad1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 95 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBerdych4wins
AwayStrnad6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStrnad leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdych66.7%4 of 6
AwayStrnad100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych6Strnad4n = 10Berdych took 6 of 10
S2Berdych4Strnad6n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S3Berdych4Strnad6n = 10Strnad took 6 of 10
S4Berdych5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S5Berdych2Strnad3n = 5Strnad took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBerdychStrnadB − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.443.8−3.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 448 vs 533 / 109649.1%48.6%220 / 448 vs 533 / 1096Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BerdychBerdych 1.80/Strnad 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Berdych · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LApr 12 · 24:00P. Berdych—1131111102J. Strnad—111595123
LApr 4 · 24:00P. Berdych—891131J. Strnad—11119113
LMar 7 · 10:30P. Berdych—1211311102J. Strnad—1071113123
LMar 7 · 08:30P. Berdych—11771232J. Strnad—7111110113
WFeb 22 · 18:30P. Berdych—111112113J. Strnad—491491
WFeb 22 · 16:00P. Berdych—1113119113J. Strnad—71571182
LFeb 1 · 08:00P. Berdych—851151J. Strnad—11116113
LDec 29 · 04:11P. Berdych—1211561J. Strnad—14811113
WDec 29 · 01:30P. Berdych—11113113J. Strnad—481191
WDec 21 · 18:30P. Berdych—116211113J. Strnad—91111652
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
J. Strnad10
LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda2.389790J. Strnad1.531111113WSep 4 · 13:30J. Strnad1.8511119133P. Kulhanek1.854111111WSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752
Upcoming Matches
P. Berdych
Nothing scheduled
J. Strnad
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