TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13021334
Played Aug 27Finished
Pavel Berdych
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1151172111214911
Martin Stefek
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:52 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeMartin Stefek to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Berdych above · Martin Stefek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 2-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Martin Stefek at 73.5%
93 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Berdych 2–4 Martin Stefek Pavel Berdych has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Stefek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Stefek
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Berdych 1353 vs Stefek 1517
Stefek
Correct
both rated, 164 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Berdych 60% vs Stefek 100%
Stefek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Berdych 80% vs Stefek 90%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Berdych -2 · Stefek +5
Stefek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Stefek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stefek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBerdych 3.40 / Stefek 1.30
Signal prob.27% / 74%
Edge (Stefek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13021334
Berdych3.40
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog25% won 15 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back19% 7 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 24
Stefek1.30
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 129 of 217
Up 2–0, closes it93% 69 of 74
Up 1–0, closes it79% 95 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBerdych2wins
AwayStefek4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderStefek leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBerdychn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayStefek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Berdych1Stefek5n = 6Stefek took 5 of 6
S2Berdych2Stefek4n = 6Stefek took 4 of 6
S3Berdych4Stefek2n = 6Berdych took 4 of 6
S4Berdych2Stefek1n = 3Berdych took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricBerdychStefekB − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match34.236.8−2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBerdychStefekBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 453 vs 566 / 118149.9%47.9%226 / 453 vs 566 / 1181Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StefekBerdych 3.40/Stefek 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Stefek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stefek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LJun 24 · 19:30P. Berdych—7970M. Stefek—1111113
LMay 3 · 02:30P. Berdych—87111262M. Stefek—1111910113
LFeb 7 · 18:00P. Berdych—6111191M. Stefek—11137113
WFeb 7 · 16:00P. Berdych—1111113M. Stefek—8980
LFeb 6 · 16:30P. Berdych—8790M. Stefek—1111113
WJul 11 · 14:00P. Berdych—101211113M. Stefek—1210771
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142LAug 29 · 22:30L. Sulava1.4491111123P. Berdych2.631149101WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970
M. Stefek10
LSep 7 · 08:00M. Stefek1.67141011472T. Andrle2.101212911113LSep 7 · 07:30J. Didi1.831111113M. Stefek1.834450WSep 7 · 06:00M. Stefek3.001181011113K. Darin1.3671112792LSep 6 · 17:00A. Svoboda1.611111123M. Stefek2.2059100LSep 6 · 16:30J. Novotny1.5091111113M. Stefek2.50118721LSep 6 · 15:30M. Stefek1.83119771A. Svoboda1.8341111113LSep 6 · 14:30F. Briza1.33111411113M. Stefek3.25216781LSep 6 · 13:00J. Briska2.2031111113M. Stefek1.61119951LSep 6 · 12:00M. Stefek2.258670J. Briska1.571111113LSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172
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