TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13035012
Played Aug 29Finished
Lubor Sulava
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111141191210––
Pavel Berdych
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timePavel Berdych to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLubor Sulava above · Pavel Berdych below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Pavel Berdych at 55.1%
77 points played in total.
H2H Lubor Sulava 7–5 Pavel Berdych Pavel Berdych has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Sulava
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-5 in 12
Sulava
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulava 1348 vs Berdych 1342
Sulava
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulava 80% vs Berdych 20%
Sulava
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulava 50% vs Berdych 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulava +4 · Berdych +1
Sulava
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Sulava) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Berdych form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulava 1.44 / Berdych 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Sulava)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13035012
Sulava1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 115 of 182
Up 2–0, closes it95% 60 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it83% 84 of 101
Berdych2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog25% won 16 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulava7wins
AwayBerdych3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSulava leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulava85.7%6 of 7
AwayBerdych66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulava7Berdych3n = 10Sulava took 7 of 10
S2Sulava7Berdych3n = 10Sulava took 7 of 10
S3Sulava5Berdych5n = 10split evenly
S4Sulava3Berdych1n = 4Sulava took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulavaBerdychS − BBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.228.3+7.9per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulavaBerdychBasisWin rate · lifetime482 / 975 vs 226 / 45249.4%50%482 / 975 vs 226 / 452Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulavaSulava 1.44/Berdych 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Sulava · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sulava won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 7 · 15:00L. Sulava—1111113P. Berdych—4450
WDec 29 · 02:30L. Sulava—11119113P. Berdych—891121
WDec 27 · 10:30L. Sulava—1113113P. Berdych—51150
WDec 27 · 07:30L. Sulava—121158113P. Berdych—107111162
WDec 25 · 09:00L. Sulava—1111113P. Berdych—4690
LNov 27 · 18:30L. Sulava—9880P. Berdych—1111103
WNov 15 · 22:30L. Sulava—91111113P. Berdych—114781
LNov 15 · 20:30L. Sulava—7750P. Berdych—1111113
WOct 19 · 12:30L. Sulava—1113113P. Berdych—21150
LOct 16 · 21:00L. Sulava—119111192P. Berdych—311134113
L. Sulava10
WSep 7 · 02:58L. Sulava2.1011811113M. Novak1.67511961WSep 7 · 02:00P. Bruzek1.9198111252L. Sulava1.801111610113WSep 7 · 24:30L. Sulava2.2014616113M. Novak1.6112111471LSep 6 · 23:00L. Sulava2.636450A. Svoboda1.441111113LSep 6 · 22:00R. Hasmanda1.441211113L. Sulava2.6310580LSep 6 · 13:30M. Barta1.75911911113L. Sulava1.9511711952WSep 6 · 12:30M. Barta1.9177111172L. Sulava1.80111165113WSep 6 · 11:30L. Sulava1.91121168113M. Stefek1.80104111172LSep 6 · 10:30J. Briska1.73971311113L. Sulava2.00111111342LAug 31 · 17:30L. Sulava1.73411111162M. Barta2.00118813113
P. Berdych10
LSep 6 · 02:30V. Kosar2.10121111113P. Berdych1.671071391LSep 6 · 01:00M. Novotny1.7361111113P. Berdych2.00112821LSep 5 · 23:30P. Berdych1.9181160M. Ulrych1.801113113LSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113WAug 30 · 02:00P. Berdych2.501212133J. Pleskot1.501010110LAug 30 · 01:00P. Berdych1.5011115872V. Kosar2.50671111113LAug 30 · 24:00D. Priesol1.28881313113P. Berdych3.501111111142WAug 27 · 20:58J. Framberk1.537450P. Berdych2.381111113LAug 27 · 20:30J. Moravek1.501111113P. Berdych2.505970LAug 27 · 19:30P. Berdych3.40111121292M. Stefek1.30571114113
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