TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13071022
Played Sep 4Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1964
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1167111196111311
Zbynek Drabek
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:17 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeZbynek Drabek to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1964 above · Zbynek Drabek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 96 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Zbynek Drabek at 56.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1964 1–2 Zbynek Drabek Jaroslav Strnad 1964 has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Drabek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1298 vs Drabek 1317
Drabek
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 20% vs Drabek 60%
Drabek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 40% vs Drabek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -3 · Drabek +1
Strnad
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Drabek) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.38 / Drabek 1.53
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Drabek)+0.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13071022
Strnad2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 94 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back21% 29 of 139
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 82
Drabek1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 22 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it90% 9 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStrnad1wins
AwayDrabek2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderDrabek leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad1Drabek2n = 3Drabek took 2 of 3
S2Strnad0Drabek3n = 3Drabek took 3 of 3
S3Strnad2Drabek1n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricStrnadDrabekS − DBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.742.3−6.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadDrabekBasisWin rate · lifetime529 / 1090 vs 40 / 8248.5%48.8%529 / 1090 vs 40 / 82Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DrabekStrnad 2.38/Drabek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.8%
Drabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strnad won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 4 · 11:00J. Strnad—117116133Z. Drabek—611911112
LSep 2 · 08:30J. Strnad—1091481Z. Drabek—121112113
LAug 6 · 12:30J. Strnad—7650Z. Drabek—1111113
J. Strnad10
LSep 6 · 02:59J. Strnad1.80471151V. Kosar1.9111119113LSep 6 · 02:00M. Novotny1.3311119123J. Strnad3.259811101LSep 6 · 24:30J. Strnad1.83811451M. Ulrych1.8311911113WSep 5 · 23:00J. Strnad2.251111123V. Kosar1.5765100WSep 5 · 22:00P. Berdych1.80611981J. Strnad1.9111911113LSep 5 · 12:59J. Strnad1.615930M. Barta2.201111113WSep 5 · 12:30J. Strnad1.5711117143M. Barta2.256811121LSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:00Z. Zikmunda2.389790J. Strnad1.531111113WSep 4 · 13:30J. Strnad1.8511119133P. Kulhanek1.854111111
Z. Drabek10
WSep 5 · 13:28Z. Zikmunda1.8311971182Z. Drabek1.83811119113LSep 5 · 12:00Z. Zikmunda2.001111113Z. Drabek1.734650WSep 5 · 11:00J. Strnad2.106760Z. Drabek1.671111113WSep 5 · 10:30Z. Drabek1.30101111113M. Barta3.40126471WSep 5 · 09:28Z. Drabek1.735111011113Z. Zikmunda2.0011612792WSep 5 · 08:00Z. Drabek1.441111113M. Barta2.634870WSep 5 · 07:30Z. Zikmunda2.0091171482Z. Drabek1.731171112113WSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101LSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:00P. Kulhanek1.91411311113Z. Drabek1.8011911282
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