TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087438
Played Sep 7Finished
Jiri Svec
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
101212101416119411
Milan Chalupnicek
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:59 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Milan Chalupnicek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 109 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 57.0%
109 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 31–44 Milan Chalupnicek Jiri Svec has won 31 of their 75 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:59What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Chalupnicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-44 in 75
Chalupnicek
Correct
gap of 13 in 75, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1278 vs Chalupnicek 1338
Chalupnicek
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 60% vs Chalupnicek 40%
Svec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 60% vs Chalupnicek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -1 · Chalupnicek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupnicek form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 2.10 / Chalupnicek 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087438
Svec2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 57 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 52
Chalupnicek1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 58 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it79% 34 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvec5wins
AwayChalupnicek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec50%3 of 6
AwayChalupnicek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec6Chalupnicek4n = 10Svec took 6 of 10
S2Svec7Chalupnicek3n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S3Svec3Chalupnicek7n = 10Chalupnicek took 7 of 10
S4Svec4Chalupnicek6n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S5Svec2Chalupnicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvecChalupnicekS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.442.9−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecChalupnicekBasisWin rate · lifetime396 / 847 vs 326 / 66146.8%49.3%396 / 847 vs 326 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekSvec 2.10/Chalupnicek 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chalupnicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 11:30J. Svec—1012141142M. Chalupnicek—1210169113
WSep 4 · 06:00J. Svec—1111910113M. Chalupnicek—76111272
WSep 1 · 06:00J. Svec—11811113M. Chalupnicek—611451
WAug 29 · 09:30J. Svec—11159113M. Chalupnicek—5131191
LAug 29 · 06:00J. Svec—11128642M. Chalupnicek—9101111113
LAug 14 · 07:00J. Svec—1113481M. Chalupnicek—91511113
LJul 30 · 10:00J. Svec—514581M. Chalupnicek—111211113
WJul 17 · 12:30J. Svec—41111113M. Chalupnicek—118491
LJul 15 · 07:30J. Svec—117991M. Chalupnicek—61111113
WMay 29 · 13:00J. Svec—812119123M. Chalupnicek—1110811102
J. Svec10
LSep 7 · 12:30J. Strnad1.2210131110113J. Svec4.00121151272LSep 7 · 10:30P. Kulhanek1.4411138113J. Svec2.637111161WSep 4 · 09:30J. Svec2.501111113Z. Drabek1.503770LSep 4 · 08:30J. Svec2.5012761182Z. Drabek1.501011115113WSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192WSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek1.6176111272J. Svec2.201111910113WSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123LSep 2 · 08:00J. Svec1.9111117972J. Grohsgott1.80991111113WSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123WSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 7 · 12:00M. Chalupnicek1.6111611113P. Kulhanek2.20611381LSep 7 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek2.208480J. Strnad1.611111113WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek1.6176111272J. Svec2.201111910113
Upcoming Matches
J. Svec1 of 3 neutral
M. Chalupnicek
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.