TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13070472
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Chalupnicek
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7116111191210711
Jiri Svec
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Chalupnicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Chalupnicek above · Jiri Svec below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 95 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Milan Chalupnicek at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Milan Chalupnicek 43–31 Jiri Svec Jiri Svec has won 31 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:08What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Chalupnicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
43-31 in 74
Chalupnicek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupnicek 1355 vs Svec 1299
Chalupnicek
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupnicek 40% vs Svec 60%
Svec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupnicek 70% vs Svec 50%
Chalupnicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupnicek -1 · Svec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Chalupnicek) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupnicek 1.61 / Svec 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Chalupnicek)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13070472
Chalupnicek1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it80% 36 of 45
Svec2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 57 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupnicek4wins
AwaySvec6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSvec leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupnicek33.3%1 of 3
AwaySvec57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupnicek3Svec7n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S2Chalupnicek3Svec7n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S3Chalupnicek7Svec3n = 10Chalupnicek took 7 of 10
S4Chalupnicek6Svec4n = 10Chalupnicek took 6 of 10
S5Chalupnicek1Svec2n = 3Svec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupnicekSvecC − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.441.5−1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupnicekSvecBasisWin rate · lifetime325 / 659 vs 396 / 84549.3%46.9%325 / 659 vs 396 / 845Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupnicekChalupnicek 1.61/Svec 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Chalupnicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—76111272J. Svec—1111910113
LSep 1 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—611451J. Svec—11811113
LAug 29 · 09:30M. Chalupnicek—5131191J. Svec—11159113
WAug 29 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek—9101111113J. Svec—11128642
WAug 14 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek—91511113J. Svec—1113481
WJul 30 · 10:00M. Chalupnicek—111211113J. Svec—514581
LJul 17 · 12:30M. Chalupnicek—118491J. Svec—41111113
WJul 15 · 07:30M. Chalupnicek—61111113J. Svec—117991
LMay 29 · 13:00M. Chalupnicek—1110811102J. Svec—812119123
LMay 29 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek—8111131J. Svec—11137113
M. Chalupnicek10
WSep 5 · 08:59M. Chalupnicek1.44111128113M. Barta2.6374111122LSep 5 · 08:30M. Chalupnicek1.6171113682Z. Zikmunda2.201171111113WSep 5 · 07:00M. Chalupnicek1.5711118113M. Barta2.25331171LSep 5 · 06:00Z. Drabek2.2051114123M. Chalupnicek1.6111812101WSep 4 · 13:06M. Chalupnicek1.681113113Z. Drabek2.0581140LSep 4 · 12:30J. Strnad1.571011711113M. Chalupnicek2.2512611752WSep 4 · 11:30M. Chalupnicek1.801111113P. Kulhanek1.916960LSep 4 · 10:30Z. Drabek2.10114611123M. Chalupnicek1.67511115102WSep 4 · 09:00P. Sudek1.401191481M. Chalupnicek2.7581116113LSep 4 · 08:00M. Chalupnicek2.637101121P. Sudek1.4411125113
J. Svec10
WSep 4 · 09:30J. Svec2.501111113Z. Drabek1.503770LSep 4 · 08:30J. Svec2.5012761182Z. Drabek1.501011115113WSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192WSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123LSep 2 · 08:00J. Svec1.9111117972J. Grohsgott1.80991111113WSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123WSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120LSep 1 · 08:58J. Strnad1.50911118113J. Svec2.5011471162LSep 1 · 08:30J. Svec2.3812780J. Strnad1.531411113LSep 1 · 07:00J. Svec3.5010111161P. Sudek1.2812913113
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