TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058170
Played Sep 2Finished
Jiri Svec
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191141412––––
David Mutl
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:44 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Svec above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 61 set 3, 14-12 — our read held David Mutl at 58.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 3–0 David Mutl David Mutl has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:44What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Svec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Svec
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1279 vs Mutl 1129
Svec
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 20% vs Mutl 40%
Mutl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 30% vs Mutl 50%
Mutl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -3 · Mutl -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Svec) · live re-read · sealed at 41% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svec form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 1.44 / Mutl 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Svec)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058170
Svec1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 58 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it82% 42 of 51
Mutl2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSvec3wins
AwayMutl0wins
Svec leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec2Mutl1n = 3Svec took 2 of 3
S2Svec3Mutl0n = 3Svec took 3 of 3
S3Svec3Mutl0n = 3Svec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSvecMutlS − MBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match36.326.0+10.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 841 vs 57 / 11746.7%48.7%393 / 841 vs 57 / 117Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvecSvec 1.44/Mutl 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec—1111143D. Mutl—94120
WAug 29 · 18:30J. Svec—1111113D. Mutl—9490
WMay 18 · 07:00J. Svec—71111113D. Mutl—118841
J. Svec10
WSep 4 · 09:30J. Svec2.501111113Z. Drabek1.503770LSep 4 · 08:30J. Svec2.5012761182Z. Drabek1.501011115113WSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192WSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek1.6176111272J. Svec2.201111910113WSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123LSep 2 · 08:00J. Svec1.9111117972J. Grohsgott1.80991111113WSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123LSep 1 · 08:58J. Strnad1.50911118113J. Svec2.5011471162LSep 1 · 08:30J. Svec2.3812780J. Strnad1.531411113LSep 1 · 07:00J. Svec3.5010111161P. Sudek1.2812913113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113
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