TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058919
Played Sep 2Finished
Miroslav Vaclavik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811911––––
David Mutl
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:05 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Vaclavik to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Vaclavik above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Miroslav Vaclavik at 60.4%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Vaclavik 6–4 David Mutl David Mutl has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:05What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vaclavik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Vaclavik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vaclavik 1297 vs Mutl 1120
Vaclavik
Wrong
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclavik 60% vs Mutl 20%
Vaclavik
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclavik 70% vs Mutl 20%
Vaclavik
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclavik -2 · Mutl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vaclavik) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclavik 1.80 / Mutl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vaclavik)+2.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058919
Vaclavik1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 33 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it88% 29 of 33
Mutl1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVaclavik6wins
AwayMutl4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderVaclavik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVaclavik62.5%5 of 8
AwayMutln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vaclavik8Mutl2n = 10Vaclavik took 8 of 10
S2Vaclavik7Mutl3n = 10Vaclavik took 7 of 10
S3Vaclavik6Mutl4n = 10Vaclavik took 6 of 10
S4Vaclavik4Mutl3n = 7Vaclavik took 4 of 7
S5Vaclavik1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVaclavikMutlV − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.537.0+2.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclavikMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime92 / 172 vs 56 / 11553.5%48.7%92 / 172 vs 56 / 115Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclavikVaclavik 1.80/Mutl 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Vaclavik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 23:30M. Vaclavik—1312113D. Mutl—111090
LJul 10 · 01:00M. Vaclavik—61111582D. Mutl—116911113
WJun 16 · 13:30M. Vaclavik—1111113D. Mutl—8570
WJun 16 · 12:00M. Vaclavik—111111113D. Mutl—136891
LJun 3 · 03:03M. Vaclavik—11551182D. Mutl—611115113
WJun 3 · 01:30M. Vaclavik—111136113D. Mutl—86111192
WMay 20 · 03:30M. Vaclavik—11136113D. Mutl—9111191
LMay 20 · 01:30M. Vaclavik—11741162D. Mutl—811113113
LMay 9 · 03:29M. Vaclavik—117116102D. Mutl—311311123
WMay 9 · 24:30M. Vaclavik—1111123D. Mutl—49100
M. Vaclavik10
WSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113WSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 3 · 23:30M. Vaclavik1.918860J. Grohsgott1.801111113WSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 2 · 12:59J. Grohsgott2.1051111143M. Vaclavik1.671172121LSep 2 · 11:30J. Grohsgott2.3811137113M. Vaclavik1.537111171LSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113WAug 31 · 03:30M. Vaclavik1.5011119113J. Grohsgott2.45961131WAug 31 · 02:30J. Potensky2.00951141M. Vaclavik1.7311119113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.