TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13087436
Played Sep 7Finished
Alexander Hejduk
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119711811811––
David Mutl
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:04 and never touched — 58.2% is still 58.2%
Graded at full timeAlexander Hejduk to win
58.2%
58.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingAlexander Hejduk above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 76 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Alexander Hejduk at 58.2%
76 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Hejduk 1–4 David Mutl Alexander Hejduk has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:04What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Mutl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Mutl
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hejduk 1079 vs Mutl 1146
Mutl
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hejduk 40% vs Mutl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hejduk 40% vs Mutl 20%
Hejduk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hejduk -1 · Mutl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mutl) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHejduk 2.20 / Mutl 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Mutl)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13087436
Hejduk2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 56 of 131
Down 0–1, comes back29% 24 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back19% 9 of 48
Mutl1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite68% won 26 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it75% 9 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeHejduk1wins
AwayMutl4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderMutl leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHejdukn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMutl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hejduk2Mutl3n = 5Mutl took 3 of 5
S2Hejduk1Mutl4n = 5Mutl took 4 of 5
S3Hejduk2Mutl3n = 5Mutl took 3 of 5
S4Hejduk2Mutl2n = 4split evenly
S5Hejduk1Mutl2n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricHejdukMutlH − MBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.644.6−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHejdukMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 426 vs 59 / 12045.8%49.2%195 / 426 vs 59 / 120Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MutlHejduk 2.20/Mutl 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Mutl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk—117881D. Mutl—91111113
LAug 30 · 22:30A. Hejduk—1111711112D. Mutl—133115133
LJul 12 · 23:30A. Hejduk—11813862D. Mutl—2111111113
WJun 9 · 22:30A. Hejduk—6101117113D. Mutl—111271592
LJun 2 · 23:30A. Hejduk—111060D. Mutl—1312113
A. Hejduk10
LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880WSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830WSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113WSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.67114511113A. Hejduk2.1081111562LSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113LSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
Upcoming Matches
A. Hejduk
Nothing scheduled
D. Mutl
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