TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058929
Played Sep 2Finished
Milan Regner
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811113611811––
David Mutl
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 60.2% is still 60.2%
Graded at full timeDavid Mutl to win
60.2%
60.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Regner above · David Mutl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 69 set 4, 8-11 — our read held David Mutl at 60.2%
69 points played in total.
H2H Milan Regner 1–1 David Mutl Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:06What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Regner 1208 vs Mutl 1113
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Mutl 0%
Regner
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 30% vs Mutl 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Mutl -5
Mutl
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mutl form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.44 / Mutl 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Regner)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058929
Regner1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 76 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Mutl2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog40% won 29 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back20% 8 of 40
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRegner1wins
AwayMutl1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricRegnerMutlR − MBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.037.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerMutlBasisWin rate · lifetime241 / 523 vs 55 / 11446.1%48.3%241 / 523 vs 55 / 114Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.44/Mutl 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.3%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mutl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 29 · 20:58M. Regner—8114101D. Mutl—11711123
WAug 29 · 19:00M. Regner—111311123D. Mutl—2156101
M. Regner10
WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451WSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113LAug 30 · 16:58M. Barta2.75114611113M. Regner1.4051111962LAug 30 · 16:30J. Svec2.001113113M. Regner1.7371160WAug 30 · 15:30M. Regner1.5711117113M. Barta2.25341151
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
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