TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13042855
Played Aug 30Finished
Jiri Svec
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171311116––––
Milan Regner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:36 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Svec above · Milan Regner below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 59 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Milan Regner at 54.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Svec 6–5 Milan Regner Milan Regner has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:36What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-5 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svec 1281 vs Regner 1192
Svec
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svec 40% vs Regner 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svec 60% vs Regner 20%
Svec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Svec -3 · Regner +1
Svec
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Svec) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Regner form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvec 2.00 / Regner 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Svec)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13042855
Svec2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog36% won 53 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 55
Regner1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 77 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it75% 55 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvec5wins
AwayRegner5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvec100%5 of 5
AwayRegner100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svec5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S2Svec5Regner5n = 10split evenly
S3Svec7Regner3n = 10Svec took 7 of 10
S4Svec6Regner0n = 6Svec took 6 of 6
S5Svec0Regner4n = 4Regner took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvecRegnerS − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.338.1+3.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvecRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 833 vs 240 / 52246.7%46%389 / 833 vs 240 / 522Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvecSvec 2.00/Regner 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Svec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Svec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 20:30J. Svec—1117113M. Regner—81590
WAug 29 · 08:30J. Svec—11911113M. Regner—511291
LAug 28 · 16:30J. Svec—861111112M. Regner—111197133
WAug 25 · 12:59J. Svec—11119123M. Regner—5711101
WAug 25 · 12:30J. Svec—1412113M. Regner—121060
LJun 22 · 08:30J. Svec—88111592M. Regner—1111713113
WJun 2 · 10:00J. Svec—1212113M. Regner—101080
LMay 29 · 12:30J. Svec—81090M. Regner—1112113
LMay 26 · 12:30J. Svec—69111182M. Regner—111196113
LMar 16 · 10:30J. Svec—81191272M. Regner—1141110113
J. Svec10
WSep 4 · 09:30J. Svec2.501111113Z. Drabek1.503770LSep 4 · 08:30J. Svec2.5012761182Z. Drabek1.501011115113WSep 4 · 07:00J. Svec3.50711119113P. Sudek1.2811881192WSep 4 · 06:00M. Chalupnicek1.6176111272J. Svec2.201111910113WSep 2 · 09:28L. Forman1.80812117102J. Svec1.911110711123LSep 2 · 08:00J. Svec1.9111117972J. Grohsgott1.80991111113WSep 2 · 07:30L. Forman1.91711118102J. Svec1.80116711123WSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120LSep 1 · 08:58J. Strnad1.50911118113J. Svec2.5011471162LSep 1 · 08:30J. Svec2.3812780J. Strnad1.531411113
M. Regner10
WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451LSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113WSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113LAug 30 · 16:58M. Barta2.75114611113M. Regner1.4051111962WAug 30 · 15:30M. Regner1.5711117113M. Barta2.25341151
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