TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13077775
Played Sep 5Finished
Milan Regner
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210117811117
Jiri Grohsgott
Away
3.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:27 and never touched — 76.3% is still 76.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Regner to win
76.3%
76.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Regner above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 96 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Milan Regner at 76.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Milan Regner 10–2 Jiri Grohsgott Jiri Grohsgott has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:27What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Regner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-2 in 12
Regner
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1195 vs Grohsgott 1229
Grohsgott
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 60% vs Grohsgott 40%
Regner
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 50% vs Grohsgott 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -1 · Grohsgott +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 76% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.25 / Grohsgott 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 22%
Edge (Regner)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13077775
Regner1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 77 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it84% 38 of 45
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Grohsgott3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 141 of 370
Down 0–1, comes back22% 42 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner8wins
AwayGrohsgott2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner83.3%5 of 6
AwayGrohsgott25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner6Grohsgott4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S2Regner7Grohsgott3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S3Regner6Grohsgott4n = 10Regner took 6 of 10
S4Regner5Grohsgott1n = 6Regner took 5 of 6
S5Regner2Grohsgott1n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerGrohsgottR − GBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.632.4+7.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime240 / 520 vs 756 / 154646.2%48.9%240 / 520 vs 756 / 1546Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.25/Grohsgott 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 09:00M. Regner—1111113J. Grohsgott—5740
WAug 21 · 08:30M. Regner—111159113J. Grohsgott—38111182
LJul 22 · 07:00M. Regner—11871152J. Grohsgott—811119113
WJun 22 · 07:30M. Regner—81111123J. Grohsgott—1144101
WJun 15 · 12:59M. Regner—91111123J. Grohsgott—1175101
WJun 15 · 12:30M. Regner—791111143J. Grohsgott—111166122
LJun 2 · 11:00M. Regner—78110J. Grohsgott—1111133
WJun 1 · 09:30M. Regner—1311113J. Grohsgott—11270
WJun 1 · 06:00M. Regner—111110113J. Grohsgott—751291
WMay 28 · 06:00M. Regner—1111113J. Grohsgott—7590
M. Regner10
WSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 15:00M. Regner2.00861151M. Syroha1.7311114113WSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451LSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113WSep 2 · 10:00M. Vaclavik1.831311221M. Regner1.8315711113LAug 30 · 16:58M. Barta2.75114611113M. Regner1.4051111962LAug 30 · 16:30J. Svec2.001113113M. Regner1.7371160WAug 30 · 15:30M. Regner1.5711117113M. Barta2.25341151
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LSep 4 · 03:30J. Grohsgott2.1091111862M. Vaclavik1.65119911113WSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880LSep 2 · 12:30M. Regner1.3091311113J. Grohsgott3.401111451
Upcoming Matches
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