TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13058814
Played Sep 2Finished
David Mutl
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511611––––
Jiri Grohsgott
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Grohsgott to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Jiri Grohsgott below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 50 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Grohsgott at 65.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 3–10 Jiri Grohsgott David Mutl has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:23What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Grohsgott
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Grohsgott
Correct
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1129 vs Grohsgott 1254
Grohsgott
Correct
both rated, 125 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 20% vs Grohsgott 40%
Grohsgott
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 40% vs Grohsgott 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -4 · Grohsgott -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Grohsgott) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grohsgott form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 2.63 / Grohsgott 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Grohsgott)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13058814
Mutl2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Grohsgott1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 157 of 244
Up 2–0, closes it96% 90 of 94
Up 1–0, closes it82% 117 of 142
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMutl2wins
AwayGrohsgott8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderGrohsgott leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMutl66.7%2 of 3
AwayGrohsgott100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl3Grohsgott7n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S2Mutl1Grohsgott9n = 10Grohsgott took 9 of 10
S3Mutl3Grohsgott7n = 10Grohsgott took 7 of 10
S4Mutl3Grohsgott2n = 5Mutl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricMutlGrohsgottM − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.635.2−5.6per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlGrohsgottBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 117 vs 753 / 154048.7%48.9%57 / 117 vs 753 / 1540Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrohsgottMutl 2.63/Grohsgott 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Grohsgott · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Grohsgott won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl—881191J. Grohsgott—11116113
LSep 2 · 08:59D. Mutl—11780J. Grohsgott—1311113
LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl—6560J. Grohsgott—1111113
LAug 31 · 24:30D. Mutl—6270J. Grohsgott—1111113
WAug 29 · 22:30D. Mutl—11118113J. Grohsgott—591161
LJul 15 · 03:00D. Mutl—9480J. Grohsgott—1111113
LJul 15 · 01:00D. Mutl—2570J. Grohsgott—1111113
LJul 13 · 24:30D. Mutl—981171J. Grohsgott—11117113
WJul 3 · 02:30D. Mutl—11911113J. Grohsgott—611741
LJun 30 · 22:00D. Mutl—119101182J. Grohsgott—611127113
D. Mutl10
WSep 7 · 08:00D. Mutl1.441211113J. Srba2.6310590WSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120
J. Grohsgott10
LSep 5 · 17:30J. Grohsgott3.00101511642M. Regner1.341213811113LSep 5 · 16:30M. Regner1.25812118113J. Grohsgott3.75111071172WSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110WSep 5 · 14:30M. Syroha1.91911111092J. Grohsgott1.80113912113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Grohsgott1.959530L. Havrda1.751111113LSep 5 · 12:30L. Havrda1.831111113J. Grohsgott1.838750LSep 5 · 11:30J. Grohsgott1.809119111M. Syroha1.9111811133WSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113WSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113WSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780
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