TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086834
Played Sep 7Finished
David Mutl
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
011411611––––
Milan Vrabec
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:59 and never touched — 63.4% is still 63.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
63.4%
63.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Mutl above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 0-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 43 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 63.4%
43 points played in total.
H2H David Mutl 0–3 Milan Vrabec David Mutl has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:59What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mutl 1117 vs Vrabec 1179
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mutl 40% vs Vrabec 80%
Vrabec
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mutl 20% vs Vrabec 70%
Vrabec
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mutl -1 · Vrabec +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMutl 2.20 / Vrabec 1.61
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Vrabec)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13086834
Mutl2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 31
Vrabec1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 77 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMutl0wins
AwayVrabec3wins
2 of 3 to a deciderVrabec leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mutl1Vrabec2n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
S2Mutl2Vrabec1n = 3Mutl took 2 of 3
S3Mutl0Vrabec3n = 3Vrabec took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricMutlVrabecM − VBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match35.044.3−9.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMutlVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime57 / 118 vs 176 / 34748.3%50.7%57 / 118 vs 176 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecMutl 2.20/Vrabec 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl—0460M. Vrabec—1111113
LJun 16 · 09:30D. Mutl—13115882M. Vrabec—1191111113
LJun 16 · 06:30D. Mutl—111181192M. Vrabec—139113113
D. Mutl10
LSep 2 · 13:28D. Mutl2.1061180M. Regner1.671113113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Vaclavik1.809890D. Mutl1.911111113WSep 2 · 11:00M. Regner1.44811681D. Mutl2.6311311113LSep 2 · 10:30D. Mutl3.25881191J. Grohsgott1.3311116113LSep 2 · 08:59J. Grohsgott1.331311113D. Mutl3.2511780LSep 2 · 08:30D. Mutl1.3055141142L. Forman3.401111129113LSep 2 · 07:00D. Mutl2.636560J. Grohsgott1.441111113LSep 2 · 06:00J. Svec1.441111143D. Mutl2.6394120LAug 31 · 01:30D. Mutl1.91811771J. Potensky1.8011511113LAug 31 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.611111113D. Mutl2.206270
M. Vrabec10
WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
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