TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13086693
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
1.28
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1173111210115––
Jaroslav Martinek
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:59 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Jaroslav Martinek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 70 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 62.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 7–2 Jaroslav Martinek Jaroslav Martinek has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:59What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (72%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1153 vs Martinek 1191
Martinek
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 60% vs Martinek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 70% vs Martinek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +1 · Martinek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martinek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.28 / Martinek 3.25
Signal prob.71% / 30%
Edge (Vrabec)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13086693
Vrabec1.28
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it88% 51 of 58
Martinek3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 19 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back15% 3 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeVrabec7wins
AwayMartinek2wins
3 of 9 to a deciderVrabec leads 7–2, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec100%5 of 5
AwayMartinek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec5Martinek4n = 9Vrabec took 5 of 9
S2Vrabec5Martinek4n = 9Vrabec took 5 of 9
S3Vrabec7Martinek2n = 9Vrabec took 7 of 9
S4Vrabec4Martinek1n = 5Vrabec took 4 of 5
S5Vrabec2Martinek1n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricVrabecMartinekV − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match37.831.0+6.8per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecMartinekBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 345 vs 76 / 15250.4%50%174 / 345 vs 76 / 152Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.435.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.28/Martinek 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.5%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 6 · 06:30M. Vrabec—1111113J. Martinek—2950
WAug 1 · 06:30M. Vrabec—1111113J. Martinek—3860
WJul 11 · 09:28M. Vrabec—51111113J. Martinek—116541
LJul 11 · 06:00M. Vrabec—5750J. Martinek—1111113
WJun 28 · 07:00M. Vrabec—8111110113J. Martinek—11881262
WJun 27 · 06:30M. Vrabec—1113113J. Martinek—51140
LJun 13 · 08:30M. Vrabec—741111102J. Martinek—111128123
WJun 7 · 08:58M. Vrabec—11315113J. Martinek—4111321
WJun 7 · 06:30M. Vrabec—118911113J. Martinek—91111892
M. Vrabec10
WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
J. Martinek10
WSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113LSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113LAug 26 · 02:58J. Martinek1.535360V. Stach2.381111113WAug 26 · 01:30J. Martinek2.251112123A. Hejduk1.57910100LAug 26 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.575111011113J. Martinek2.2511512492WAug 25 · 23:30V. Stach1.83891141J. Martinek1.8311117113LAug 25 · 22:30J. Martinek1.7311060T. Kucera2.001112113WAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.80411991J. Martinek1.9111911113
Upcoming Matches
M. Vrabec
J. Martinek
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