TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063895
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116119611116––
Milan Smesny
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 71 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Milan Smesny at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 18–9 Milan Smesny Milan Smesny has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:29What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1144 vs Smesny 1181
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 60% vs Smesny 80%
Smesny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Smesny 90%
Smesny
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec -1 · Smesny +4
Smesny
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 1.44 / Smesny 2.63
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Vrabec)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063895
Vrabec1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it88% 51 of 58
Smesny2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrabec8wins
AwaySmesny2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec87.5%7 of 8
AwaySmesnyn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec8Smesny2n = 10Vrabec took 8 of 10
S2Vrabec6Smesny4n = 10Vrabec took 6 of 10
S3Vrabec6Smesny4n = 10Vrabec took 6 of 10
S4Vrabec4Smesny3n = 7Vrabec took 4 of 7
S5Vrabec3Smesny1n = 4Vrabec took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrabecSmesnyV − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.235.1+4.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 342 vs 189 / 36250.3%52.2%172 / 342 vs 189 / 362Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecVrabec 1.44/Smesny 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.9%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec—11116113M. Smesny—691161
WAug 3 · 09:30M. Vrabec—1111113M. Smesny—8670
WAug 3 · 07:30M. Vrabec—1181110113M. Smesny—71151282
LJul 19 · 11:00M. Vrabec—112441M. Smesny—21111113
WJul 11 · 08:30M. Vrabec—51111113M. Smesny—118781
WJun 23 · 09:07M. Vrabec—119912133M. Smesny—7111110112
WJun 23 · 06:00M. Vrabec—191148113M. Smesny—174111182
WJun 10 · 08:30M. Vrabec—1111113M. Smesny—9930
WMay 25 · 06:00M. Vrabec—1111123M. Smesny—43100
LMay 3 · 09:06M. Vrabec—44111252M. Smesny—1111410113
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
Upcoming Matches
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