Milan Smesny vs Ladislav Novotny 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProMatch #13058153

Played Sep 1Finished

Milan Smesny

Home

1.57

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Won last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1171210611119––

Ladislav Novotny

Away

2.25

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Lost last 1

How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Ladislav Novotny below

Set 1 · 11-7

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 6-11

Set 4 · 11-9

Point 77 set 4, 11-9

77 points played in total.

H2H Milan Smesny 10–4 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 4 of their 14 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Smesny)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsSmesny 1.57 / Novotny 2.25

Signal prob.61% / 39%

Edge (Smesny)+2.4pp

Czech Liga Pro · #13058153

Smesny1.57

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

80%takes the first set · 8 of 10

As favourite63% won 44 of 70

Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21

Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32

Novotny2.25

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog49% won 38 of 78

Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39

Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeSmesny7wins

AwayNovotny3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeSmesny100%5 of 5

AwayNovotny60%3 of 5

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Smesny5Novotny5n = 10split evenly

S2Smesny5Novotny5n = 10split evenly

S3Smesny6Novotny4n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10

S4Smesny5Novotny3n = 8Smesny took 5 of 8

S5Smesny4Novotny1n = 5Smesny took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricSmesnyNovotnyS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.637.2+3.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricSmesnyNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 365 vs 179 / 35552.1%50.4%190 / 365 vs 179 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.0per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Smesny

Smesny 1.57/Novotny 2.25

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

61.3%

Smesny · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Smesny won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 1 · 08:30M. Smesny—561111113L. Novotny—11119772

WAug 25 · 11:30M. Smesny—115712113L. Novotny—911111092

LJun 23 · 07:00M. Smesny—71151192L. Novotny—114115113

LMay 26 · 11:00M. Smesny—761181L. Novotny—11118113

WMay 11 · 12:00M. Smesny—1112113L. Novotny—61040

WMay 4 · 10:00M. Smesny—1111113L. Novotny—7670

WMar 3 · 07:00M. Smesny—115116113L. Novotny—81181122

WJan 23 · 10:30M. Smesny—111211113L. Novotny—414461

LJan 23 · 08:30M. Smesny—16111071L. Novotny—18712113

WJan 22 · 08:00M. Smesny—011811113L. Novotny—11711272

M. Smesny10

WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191 LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113 LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113 WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113 LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113 WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123 LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113 LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161 WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113 WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990

L. Novotny10

LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191 LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113 WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113 LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113 LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113 WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560 WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113 WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151 LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113 WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580

Upcoming Matches

M. Smesny

Sep 8 · 06:30M. Smesny—L. Novotny——

L. Novotny

Sep 8 · 06:30L. Novotny—M. Smesny——

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