TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065144
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012511611––––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 55 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Milan Smesny at 66.9%
55 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 11–5 Ladislav Novotny Ladislav Novotny has won 5 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Smesny
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-5 in 16
Smesny
Wrong
gap of 6 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1181 vs Novotny 1240
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Novotny 60%
Smesny
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 80% vs Novotny 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny -1 · Novotny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Smesny) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Novotny form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 1.50 / Novotny 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Smesny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065144
Smesny1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 47 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 28 of 34
Novotny2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 38 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back29% 11 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny7wins
AwayNovotny3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny100%6 of 6
AwayNovotny75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny6Novotny4n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S2Smesny4Novotny6n = 10Novotny took 6 of 10
S3Smesny6Novotny4n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S4Smesny5Novotny2n = 7Smesny took 5 of 7
S5Smesny3Novotny1n = 4Smesny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyNovotnyS − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.7+2.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 362 vs 182 / 35952.2%50.7%189 / 362 vs 182 / 359Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnySmesny 1.50/Novotny 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny—10560L. Novotny—1211113
WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny—11126113L. Novotny—7101191
WSep 1 · 08:30M. Smesny—561111113L. Novotny—11119772
WAug 25 · 11:30M. Smesny—115712113L. Novotny—911111092
LJun 23 · 07:00M. Smesny—71151192L. Novotny—114115113
LMay 26 · 11:00M. Smesny—761181L. Novotny—11118113
WMay 11 · 12:00M. Smesny—1112113L. Novotny—61040
WMay 4 · 10:00M. Smesny—1111113L. Novotny—7670
WMar 3 · 07:00M. Smesny—115116113L. Novotny—81181122
WJan 23 · 10:30M. Smesny—111211113L. Novotny—414461
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
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