TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082603
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012411117811––
Milan Vrabec
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 65.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 9–19 Milan Vrabec Milan Smesny has won 9 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-19 in 28
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1168 vs Vrabec 1153
Smesny
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 40% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 60% vs Vrabec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny -1 · Vrabec -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.75 / Vrabec 1.40
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Vrabec)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13082603
Smesny2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 15 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back7% 2 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Vrabec1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it88% 51 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny1wins
AwayVrabec9wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 9–1, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesnyn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVrabec88.9%8 of 9
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny1Vrabec9n = 10Vrabec took 9 of 10
S2Smesny3Vrabec7n = 10Vrabec took 7 of 10
S3Smesny5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S4Smesny3Vrabec4n = 7Vrabec took 4 of 7
S5Smesny0Vrabec3n = 3Vrabec took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyVrabecS − VBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set19−8of 10Avg pointsper match33.739.7−6.0per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 365 vs 174 / 34552.1%50.4%190 / 365 vs 174 / 345Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecSmesny 2.75/Vrabec 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.1%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny—1041181M. Vrabec—12117113
LSep 3 · 06:30M. Smesny—691161M. Vrabec—11116113
LAug 3 · 09:30M. Smesny—8670M. Vrabec—1111113
LAug 3 · 07:30M. Smesny—71151282M. Vrabec—1181110113
WJul 19 · 11:00M. Smesny—21111113M. Vrabec—112441
LJul 11 · 08:30M. Smesny—118781M. Vrabec—51111113
LJun 23 · 09:07M. Smesny—7111110112M. Vrabec—119912133
LJun 23 · 06:00M. Smesny—174111182M. Vrabec—191148113
LJun 10 · 08:30M. Smesny—9930M. Vrabec—1111113
LMay 25 · 06:00M. Smesny—43100M. Vrabec—1111123
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
M. Vrabec10
WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
Upcoming Matches
M. Smesny
Nothing scheduled
M. Vrabec
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.