TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065128
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
411811116611––
Milan Vrabec
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 62.9%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 7–12 Milan Vrabec Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-12 in 19
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1049 vs Vrabec 1144
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 95 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 0% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 40% vs Vrabec 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -5 · Vrabec +1
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 2.75 / Vrabec 1.40
Signal prob.33% / 68%
Edge (Vrabec)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065128
Strnad2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Vrabec1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 75 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it88% 51 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad3wins
AwayVrabec7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad60%3 of 5
AwayVrabec100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S2Strnad7Vrabec3n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S3Strnad3Vrabec7n = 10Vrabec took 7 of 10
S4Strnad3Vrabec7n = 10Vrabec took 7 of 10
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadVrabecS − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.538.9−2.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime153 / 365 vs 172 / 34241.9%50.3%153 / 365 vs 172 / 342Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.536.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecStrnad 2.75/Vrabec 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad—481161M. Vrabec—11116113
LAug 3 · 06:00J. Strnad—912681M. Vrabec—111011113
LJul 22 · 12:30J. Strnad—31111592M. Vrabec—118811113
WJul 19 · 10:30J. Strnad—111210113M. Vrabec—4101261
LJun 27 · 08:59J. Strnad—1110521M. Vrabec—51211113
LJun 27 · 08:30J. Strnad—11114762M. Vrabec—791111113
LJun 10 · 06:00J. Strnad—811691M. Vrabec—11911113
WMay 31 · 08:59J. Strnad—11611113M. Vrabec—411841
WMay 31 · 06:30J. Strnad—11119113M. Vrabec—651161
LMay 25 · 08:30J. Strnad—7111081M. Vrabec—11712113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113
Upcoming Matches
J. Strnad
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M. Vrabec
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