TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13011474
Played Aug 25Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
2.35
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
311511118711––
Vojtech Stach
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:06 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeVojtech Stach to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Vojtech Stach below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Vojtech Stach at 56.6%
67 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 3–5 Vojtech Stach Milan Vrabec has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:06What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Stach
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-5 in 8
Stach
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1136 vs Stach 1270
Stach
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 60% vs Stach 80%
Stach
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 50% vs Stach 80%
Stach
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +2 · Stach -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Stach) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 2.35 / Stach 1.53
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Stach)+8.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13011474
Vrabec2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog28% won 24 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back7% 3 of 41
Stach1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 17 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it86% 12 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeVrabec3wins
AwayStach5wins
2 of 8 to a deciderStach leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabecn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStach83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec2Stach6n = 8Stach took 6 of 8
S2Vrabec4Stach4n = 8split evenly
S3Vrabec6Stach2n = 8Vrabec took 6 of 8
S4Vrabec2Stach5n = 7Stach took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricVrabecStachV − SBasisWins35−2in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match36.136.10.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecStachBasisWin rate · lifetime170 / 342 vs 60 / 11349.7%53.1%170 / 342 vs 60 / 113Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.535.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachVrabec 2.35/Stach 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.6%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec—351171V. Stach—11118113
LAug 25 · 06:30M. Vrabec—311871V. Stach—11711113
LAug 15 · 13:30M. Vrabec—8101161V. Stach—11124113
WAug 15 · 11:30M. Vrabec—11811113V. Stach—711151
LAug 3 · 08:00M. Vrabec—51171182V. Stach—118113113
WJun 28 · 06:00M. Vrabec—1111113V. Stach—4540
LAug 22 · 09:02M. Vrabec—951381V. Stach—111111113
WAug 22 · 06:30M. Vrabec—713116113V. Stach—111151172
M. Vrabec10
LSep 7 · 07:00M. Vrabec3.75951141J. Srba1.2511117113WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161
V. Stach10
WSep 5 · 17:03M. Syroha1.514670V. Stach2.401111113WSep 5 · 16:00V. Stach2.6351112123M. Syroha1.4411810101LSep 5 · 15:30J. Grohsgott1.671111133V. Stach2.1038110LSep 5 · 14:00V. Stach2.509790M. Regner1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:30M. Syroha2.2561141182V. Stach1.57118118113LSep 5 · 12:00M. Syroha1.441114126113V. Stach2.63512141112WSep 5 · 11:00L. Havrda1.5728100V. Stach2.251111123LSep 5 · 10:30V. Stach2.1011470J. Grohsgott1.671311113LAug 30 · 03:30L. Havrda1.851111113V. Stach1.856380WAug 30 · 02:00J. Grohsgott1.671411461V. Stach2.1016511113
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