TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13081919
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Martinek
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211911511––––
Milan Vrabec
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:48 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Vrabec to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Martinek above · Milan Vrabec below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Milan Vrabec at 63.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Martinek 2–8 Milan Vrabec Jaroslav Martinek has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:48What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Vrabec
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Vrabec
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Martinek 1178 vs Vrabec 1179
Vrabec
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Martinek 40% vs Vrabec 60%
Vrabec
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Martinek 60% vs Vrabec 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Martinek -1 · Vrabec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Vrabec) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMartinek 2.75 / Vrabec 1.40
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Vrabec)+3.5pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13081919
Martinek2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 21 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Vrabec1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 77 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it89% 31 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 53 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMartinek2wins
AwayVrabec8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVrabec leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMartinek50%2 of 4
AwayVrabec100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Martinek4Vrabec6n = 10Vrabec took 6 of 10
S2Martinek5Vrabec5n = 10split evenly
S3Martinek2Vrabec8n = 10Vrabec took 8 of 10
S4Martinek1Vrabec5n = 6Vrabec took 5 of 6
S5Martinek1Vrabec2n = 3Vrabec took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMartinekVrabecM − VBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.237.7−6.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMartinekVrabecBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 152 vs 176 / 34749.3%50.7%75 / 152 vs 176 / 347Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VrabecMartinek 2.75/Vrabec 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Vrabec · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vrabec won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:30J. Martinek—7111051M. Vrabec—11312113
LSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek—2950M. Vrabec—1111113
LAug 1 · 06:30J. Martinek—3860M. Vrabec—1111113
LJul 11 · 09:28J. Martinek—116541M. Vrabec—51111113
WJul 11 · 06:00J. Martinek—1111113M. Vrabec—5750
LJun 28 · 07:00J. Martinek—11881262M. Vrabec—8111110113
LJun 27 · 06:30J. Martinek—51140M. Vrabec—1113113
WJun 13 · 08:30J. Martinek—111128123M. Vrabec—741111102
LJun 7 · 08:58J. Martinek—4111321M. Vrabec—11315113
LJun 7 · 06:30J. Martinek—91111892M. Vrabec—118911113
J. Martinek10
LSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113LAug 26 · 02:58J. Martinek1.535360V. Stach2.381111113WAug 26 · 01:30J. Martinek2.251112123A. Hejduk1.57910100LAug 26 · 24:30J. Grohsgott1.575111011113J. Martinek2.2511512492WAug 25 · 23:30V. Stach1.83891141J. Martinek1.8311117113LAug 25 · 22:30J. Martinek1.7311060T. Kucera2.001112113WAug 23 · 09:30L. Havrda1.22161111842J. Martinek4.00189611113WAug 23 · 08:30J. Hyrsl1.80411991J. Martinek1.9111911113
M. Vrabec10
WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
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