TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13082558
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Vrabec
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1517411911––––
Ladislav Novotny
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:39 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Vrabec above · Ladislav Novotny below
Set 1 · 15-17
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 67 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 58.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Milan Vrabec 2–8 Ladislav Novotny Milan Vrabec has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:39What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Novotny
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vrabec 1179 vs Novotny 1204
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vrabec 80% vs Novotny 60%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vrabec 70% vs Novotny 50%
Vrabec
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vrabec +2 · Novotny -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vrabec form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVrabec 2.20 / Novotny 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Novotny)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13082558
Vrabec2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog30% won 26 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Novotny1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 47 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVrabec2wins
AwayNovotny8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVrabec66.7%2 of 3
AwayNovotny100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vrabec3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Vrabec3Novotny7n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Vrabec1Novotny9n = 10Novotny took 9 of 10
S4Vrabec4Novotny1n = 5Vrabec took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricVrabecNovotnyV − NBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match30.337.7−7.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVrabecNovotnyBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 347 vs 181 / 36050.7%50.3%176 / 347 vs 181 / 360Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyVrabec 2.20/Novotny 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec—15490L. Novotny—1711113
WSep 3 · 09:29M. Vrabec—141211113L. Novotny—12101371
LSep 3 · 08:00M. Vrabec—9560L. Novotny—1111113
WJul 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec—11129113L. Novotny—9101121
LJul 25 · 08:30M. Vrabec—104111182L. Novotny—121156113
LJun 27 · 07:30M. Vrabec—7840L. Novotny—1111113
LJun 23 · 08:00M. Vrabec—10340L. Novotny—1211113
LJun 13 · 06:00M. Vrabec—5460L. Novotny—1111113
LMay 31 · 08:00M. Vrabec—611731L. Novotny—11411113
LApr 19 · 07:00M. Vrabec—115411112L. Novotny—711117133
M. Vrabec10
WSep 7 · 06:00D. Mutl2.200460M. Vrabec1.611111113WSep 6 · 09:30M. Vrabec1.2811312113J. Martinek3.257111051WSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113WSep 6 · 06:30J. Martinek2.752950M. Vrabec1.401111113WSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113LSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113WSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161LAug 25 · 09:30M. Vrabec2.35351171V. Stach1.5311118113WAug 25 · 08:30L. Forman1.30113131292M. Vrabec3.404111510113
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
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