TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13063866
Played Sep 3Finished
Ladislav Novotny
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115114711115––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Novotny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Novotny above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Ladislav Novotny at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Novotny 21–22 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Ladislav Novotny has won 21 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Novotny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-22 in 43
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Novotny 1240 vs Strnad 1049
Novotny
Correct
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Novotny 40% vs Strnad 20%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Novotny 70% vs Strnad 50%
Novotny
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Novotny -2 · Strnad -4
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Novotny) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Strnad form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNovotny 1.57 / Strnad 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Novotny)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13063866
Novotny1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 46 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it97% 28 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it80% 37 of 46
Strnad2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 24 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back18% 11 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNovotny6wins
AwayStrnad4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderNovotny leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNovotny71.4%5 of 7
AwayStrnad66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Novotny7Strnad3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S2Novotny7Strnad3n = 10Novotny took 7 of 10
S3Novotny5Strnad5n = 10split evenly
S4Novotny4Strnad2n = 6Novotny took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricNovotnyStrnadN − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.232.1+5.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNovotnyStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime182 / 360 vs 153 / 36550.6%41.9%182 / 360 vs 153 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NovotnyNovotny 1.57/Strnad 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Novotny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Novotny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny—11117113J. Strnad—541151
WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny—1111113J. Strnad—6580
LAug 28 · 13:30L. Novotny—98111152J. Strnad—111166113
WAug 28 · 11:30L. Novotny—1611113J. Strnad—14660
LAug 27 · 07:00L. Novotny—11117662J. Strnad—371111113
WAug 25 · 13:00L. Novotny—11117113J. Strnad—861171
LAug 25 · 10:00L. Novotny—1110391J. Strnad—81211113
WJun 30 · 11:00L. Novotny—1211123J. Strnad—104100
WJun 27 · 06:00L. Novotny—91111113J. Strnad—119651
LJun 6 · 06:30L. Novotny—10970J. Strnad—1211113
L. Novotny10
LSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:00L. Novotny1.7331080J. Martinek2.001112113WSep 6 · 07:30M. Vrabec2.2015490L. Novotny1.611711113LSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 09:29L. Novotny1.4012101371M. Vrabec2.75141211113WSep 3 · 08:00L. Novotny1.731111113M. Vrabec2.009560WSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191LSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.