TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052426
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118113118––––
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Jaroslav Strnad 1961 below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 52 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 31–11 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 11 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Cernik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-11 in 42
Cernik
Correct
gap of 20 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1066 vs Strnad 1146
Strnad
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 20% vs Strnad 40%
Strnad
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 30% vs Strnad 60%
Strnad
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik -4 · Strnad -2
Cernik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 1.44 / Strnad 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Cernik)+0.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052426
Cernik1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Strnad2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog30% won 23 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik7wins
AwayStrnad3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik100%3 of 3
AwayStrnad42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik3Strnad7n = 10Strnad took 7 of 10
S2Cernik7Strnad3n = 10Cernik took 7 of 10
S3Cernik9Strnad1n = 10Cernik took 9 of 10
S4Cernik6Strnad2n = 8Cernik took 6 of 8
S5Cernik1Strnad2n = 3Strnad took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikStrnadC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.336.0+6.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikStrnadBasisWin rate · lifetime366 / 803 vs 157 / 37145.6%42.3%366 / 803 vs 157 / 371Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.635.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikCernik 1.44/Strnad 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.2%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 22 · 10:30J. Cernik—11611113J. Strnad—911631
WJun 30 · 13:00J. Cernik—81111113J. Strnad—112991
WJun 30 · 12:30J. Cernik—121112113J. Strnad—1461041
WJun 9 · 12:00J. Cernik—81111113J. Strnad—113571
WMay 7 · 10:30J. Cernik—1411113J. Strnad—12490
LApr 16 · 07:30J. Cernik—6911141J. Strnad—11119163
WDec 28 · 13:30J. Cernik—991112113J. Strnad—111161072
LDec 27 · 07:30J. Cernik—3111512112J. Strnad—1171314133
WJun 14 · 09:02J. Cernik—1111113J. Strnad—6850
LJun 14 · 06:00J. Cernik—91171152J. Strnad—118115113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
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