TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13065116
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Strnad 1961
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5112111012––––
Milan Smesny
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:29 and never touched — 75.3% is still 75.3%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
75.3%
75.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Strnad 1961 above · Milan Smesny below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 51 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Milan Smesny at 75.3%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Strnad 1961 14–33 Milan Smesny Jaroslav Strnad 1961 has won 14 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Smesny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-33 in 47
Smesny
Correct
gap of 19 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strnad 1083 vs Smesny 1186
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strnad 0% vs Smesny 60%
Smesny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strnad 30% vs Smesny 70%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Strnad -5 · Smesny -2
Strnad
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Smesny)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Smesny form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrnad 3.25 / Smesny 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Smesny)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13065116
Strnad3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog28% won 23 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Smesny1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite64% won 46 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it84% 27 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrnad2wins
AwaySmesny8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSmesny leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrnad25%1 of 4
AwaySmesny83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strnad4Smesny6n = 10Smesny took 6 of 10
S2Strnad2Smesny8n = 10Smesny took 8 of 10
S3Strnad3Smesny7n = 10Smesny took 7 of 10
S4Strnad1Smesny5n = 6Smesny took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrnadSmesnyStrnad − SmesnyBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match27.538.3−10.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrnadSmesnyBasisWin rate · lifetime155 / 367 vs 189 / 36442.2%51.9%155 / 367 vs 189 / 364Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.737.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SmesnyStrnad 3.25/Smesny 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Smesny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:30J. Strnad—117941M. Smesny—71111113
LAug 25 · 12:30J. Strnad—13630M. Smesny—1511113
LAug 24 · 13:28J. Strnad—4116101M. Smesny—11811123
WAug 24 · 11:30J. Strnad—1081111123M. Smesny—121199102
LAug 5 · 11:00J. Strnad—114191M. Smesny—61111113
LAug 3 · 08:30J. Strnad—115421M. Smesny—91111113
LJul 21 · 08:30J. Strnad—2380M. Smesny—1111113
WJul 19 · 13:30J. Strnad—1111113M. Smesny—8880
LJul 19 · 12:30J. Strnad—5580M. Smesny—1111113
LJun 15 · 09:30J. Strnad—381161M. Smesny—11119113
J. Strnad10
LSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 01:00J. Strnad1.8339130M. Vaclavik1.831111153LSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830LSep 3 · 22:30J. Grohsgott1.201111113J. Strnad4.334460WSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 07:00J. Strnad2.75481161M. Vrabec1.4011116113LSep 3 · 06:00L. Novotny1.5711117113J. Strnad2.25541151LSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891LSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380LSep 1 · 07:00L. Novotny1.671111113J. Strnad2.106580
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny2.101111113J. Cernik1.678990
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