TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052423
Played Sep 1Finished
Milan Smesny
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119119––––
Jaromir Cernik
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Smesny to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Smesny above · Jaromir Cernik below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 59 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Milan Smesny at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Milan Smesny 19–26 Jaromir Cernik Milan Smesny has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Cernik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-26 in 45
Cernik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smesny 1229 vs Cernik 1119
Smesny
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smesny 80% vs Cernik 20%
Smesny
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smesny 70% vs Cernik 30%
Smesny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Smesny +1 · Cernik -3
Cernik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cernik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cernik form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmesny 2.10 / Cernik 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cernik)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13052423
Smesny2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog31% won 16 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back8% 2 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Cernik1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 60 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it92% 36 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it79% 44 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmesny3wins
AwayCernik7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderCernik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmesny50%2 of 4
AwayCernik83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S3Smesny4Cernik6n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S4Smesny1Cernik4n = 5Cernik took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmesnyCernikS − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.735.1−4.4per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmesnyCernikBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 362 vs 370 / 80952.2%45.7%189 / 362 vs 370 / 809Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CernikSmesny 2.10/Cernik 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cernik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smesny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 07:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—8990
LJul 22 · 06:30M. Smesny—54130J. Cernik—1111153
LJul 11 · 08:59M. Smesny—813891J. Cernik—111111113
LJul 11 · 06:30M. Smesny—4970J. Cernik—1111113
WJun 9 · 13:30M. Smesny—1111113J. Cernik—2770
LJun 9 · 10:30M. Smesny—112114102J. Cernik—511311123
LMay 26 · 10:00M. Smesny—5560J. Cernik—1111113
LMay 20 · 02:00M. Smesny—1149101J. Cernik—41111123
WMay 18 · 13:00M. Smesny—511611113J. Cernik—11911932
LMay 18 · 11:30M. Smesny—471171J. Cernik—11116113
M. Smesny10
WSep 6 · 09:00M. Smesny1.8091113113L. Novotny1.911181191LSep 6 · 08:30M. Smesny2.751041181M. Vrabec1.4012117113LSep 6 · 07:00M. Smesny1.57111191162J. Martinek2.25831113113WSep 6 · 06:00L. Novotny2.00111111982M. Smesny1.73913911113LSep 3 · 08:58M. Smesny1.30116771J. Strnad3.4081111113WSep 3 · 08:30J. Strnad3.2552100M. Smesny1.331111123LSep 3 · 07:30M. Smesny1.5010560L. Novotny2.501211113LSep 3 · 06:30M. Vrabec1.4411116113M. Smesny2.63691161WSep 1 · 09:29M. Smesny1.5711126113L. Novotny2.257101191WSep 1 · 08:30L. Novotny2.2511119772M. Smesny1.57561111113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 10:30J. Cernik2.001611113A. Hejduk1.7314850WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.