TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13052025
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaromir Cernik
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1614118115––––
Alexander Hejduk
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaromir Cernik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaromir Cernik above · Alexander Hejduk below
Set 1 · 16-14
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 65 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jaromir Cernik at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Jaromir Cernik 16–17 Alexander Hejduk Jaromir Cernik has won 16 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:58What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hejduk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-17 in 33
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cernik 1111 vs Hejduk 1089
Cernik
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cernik 40% vs Hejduk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cernik 40% vs Hejduk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cernik +2 · Hejduk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hejduk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hejduk form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCernik 2.00 / Hejduk 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hejduk)+0.3pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13052025
Cernik2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 46 of 157
Down 0–1, comes back18% 17 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back11% 7 of 65
Hejduk1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 41 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it83% 29 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCernik5wins
AwayHejduk5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCernik66.7%4 of 6
AwayHejduk75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cernik6Hejduk4n = 10Cernik took 6 of 10
S2Cernik3Hejduk7n = 10Hejduk took 7 of 10
S3Cernik4Hejduk6n = 10Hejduk took 6 of 10
S4Cernik5Hejduk3n = 8Cernik took 5 of 8
S5Cernik2Hejduk1n = 3Cernik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCernikHejdukC − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.436.7−0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCernikHejdukBasisWin rate · lifetime368 / 805 vs 194 / 41945.7%46.3%368 / 805 vs 194 / 419Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HejdukCernik 2.00/Hejduk 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hejduk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Cernik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 17 · 08:30J. Cernik—11511113A. Hejduk—911861
WJul 27 · 02:00J. Cernik—113712123A. Hejduk—3111110102
WJul 23 · 22:30J. Cernik—111811153A. Hejduk—116115132
LJun 12 · 03:00J. Cernik—86111192A. Hejduk—111163113
WJun 12 · 01:30J. Cernik—11411113A. Hejduk—711141
LJun 2 · 08:00J. Cernik—811691A. Hejduk—11311113
WMay 7 · 08:58J. Cernik—1112113A. Hejduk—91060
LMay 7 · 07:00J. Cernik—6770A. Hejduk—1111113
LApr 13 · 02:00J. Cernik—1191091A. Hejduk—81112113
LMar 31 · 06:30J. Cernik—114381A. Hejduk—81111113
J. Cernik10
LSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030WSep 4 · 02:00J. Strnad3.00161013972J. Cernik1.3614121111113LSep 4 · 24:30J. Cernik3.4081310J. Grohsgott1.301115113LSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113LSep 3 · 22:00M. Vaclavik1.401111133J. Cernik2.7585110LSep 1 · 13:30Z. Kasinski1.401111113J. Cernik2.759670WSep 1 · 12:00C. Havrda2.509540J. Cernik1.501111113LSep 1 · 11:00Z. Kasinski1.801111113J. Cernik1.918860WSep 1 · 09:03J. Cernik1.5381111113J. Strnad2.38113891WSep 1 · 08:00J. Cernik1.441111113J. Strnad2.638380
A. Hejduk10
LSep 7 · 07:30A. Hejduk2.20117881D. Mutl1.6191111113LSep 7 · 06:30J. Srba2.3811116113A. Hejduk1.53721171WSep 4 · 03:01A. Hejduk1.631112113J. Cernik2.1341030LSep 4 · 02:30A. Hejduk2.506790M. Vaclavik1.501111113LSep 4 · 01:30J. Grohsgott1.671111113A. Hejduk2.106880WSep 4 · 24:00A. Hejduk1.331211113J. Strnad3.2510830WSep 3 · 23:00J. Cernik1.915770A. Hejduk1.801111113WSep 1 · 12:59C. Havrda3.759780A. Hejduk1.251111113LSep 1 · 12:30Z. Kasinski1.67114511113A. Hejduk2.1081111562LSep 1 · 11:30A. Hejduk1.2071111772C. Havrda4.33116411113
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A. Hejduk
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